Same Scenario

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
315 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2003

.SHORT TERM...MASSIVE 560 DECAMETER H5 UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST US. FORTUNATELY...IT IS THIS PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS SHIELDING THE AREA FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING
WESTWARD...OFF THE WEST FLORIDA COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN
TANDEM WITH NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...WHICH MOVES WEST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON
FRIDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED EASTERLY STEERING CURRENTS AROUND
THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE. MAIN INFLUENCE AND OF MOST CONCERN
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOR MARINE INTERESTS AND WILL DISCUSS
SHORTLY IN MARINE SECTION BELOW. AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES WESTWARD...
HEADING INTO FRIDAY WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD. THIS ENERGY WHEN INTERACTING WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...SUGGESTS A MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS LOWERING ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC SATURDAY ALLOWS A TROF OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE/FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN.