Andrew type of set up

[wzrgirl1]

Does anyone think that we will ever see a pattern that created and then steered Andrew into South Florida? Or do you think that is a once in a lifetime event? I am curious as to people's thoughts on this. Thanks!

[Frank2]

Each tropical system and it's environment are like a snowflake - no two are the same though similar so it's unlikely that we'd see exactly the same thing, but it's possible...

Lettuce hope not...

Frank

[Nimbus]

You don't get a major hurricane like Andrew hitting south Florida but once every 9 years or so on average. With Andrew the synoptic pattern changed at the last minute. The next major storm to make landfall in south Florida will more likely be a forecast event with 48 hours or more notice. Part of the problem with track forecasting is that its hard to predict where storms will come in if the forecast track runs parallel up the coast. That was why Charley surprised so many people in SW Florida.

[ColinDelia]

In the 20th century a major hurricane hit SE Florida (direct hit on coastline) once every decade on average. A category 4 hit once every 25 years. There were as many hurricanes hitting SE Florida in the 20th century as there were presidential elections.

[wzrgirl1]

You don't get a major hurricane like Andrew hitting south Florida but once every 9 years or so on average. With Andrew the synoptic pattern changed at the last minute. The next major storm to make landfall in south Florida will more likely be a forecast event with 48 hours or more notice. Part of the problem with track forecasting is that its hard to predict where storms will come in if the forecast track runs parallel up the coast. That was why Charley surprised so many people in SW Florida.

Every 9 years? That seems like a lot. I do agree that we will know quite a bit ahead of time if we were to get a major such as Andrew. The ones that scare me are the homebrewed storms that may catch some people by surprise.

[wxman57]

You don't get a major hurricane like Andrew hitting south Florida but once every 9 years or so on average. With Andrew the synoptic pattern changed at the last minute. The next major storm to make landfall in south Florida will more likely be a forecast event with 48 hours or more notice. Part of the problem with track forecasting is that its hard to predict where storms will come in if the forecast track runs parallel up the coast. That was why Charley surprised so many people in SW Florida.

Every 9 years? That seems like a lot. I do agree that we will know quite a bit ahead of time if we were to get a major such as Andrew. The ones that scare me are the homebrewed storms that may catch some people by surprise.

It appears you haven't lived in south Florida long enough, wzrgirl1. During the last active cycle (1926-1969), the Florida peninsula was hit quite often. In fact from 1944-1969, the peninsula was hit by a dozen major hurricanes, or once every 2 years on average.

As for the question about the Andrew-type pattern, we've already seen it quite often in recent years. Think Jeanne in 2004 or even Ike of 2008. Neither year brought an Andrew to south Florida, but that's the blocking pattern needed to produce a similar path. Don't get too hung up on Andrew's path. I suggest going take a look at past years over at Unisys' site:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html

Or make a few climp plots at Coastal Service's site:
http://csc-s-maps-q.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

And check out a page I made discussing the coming threat to Florida back in 2000:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/

[ColinDelia]

1926 Miami hurricane is a good one to look at too. When I lived in Miami I went to a mansion that had sustained a lot of damage in that classic storm but was rebuilt and is still around. That's also the storm that caused UM to name its sports teams the Hurricanes (having opened for classes in 1926). One more quick history lesson - the 1926 hurricane ended the massive bubble in 1920s South Florida real estate.

[wzrgirl1]

Thanks for the info. I have lived in South Florida for 40 years BTW. I don't keep up on the stats as you might however it didn't seem to me that we were getting direct hits from major hurricanes as often as that. I guess I was wrong.

[ColinDelia]

1945 storm another good one to look at. Landfall at Homestead. Estimated 150 mph gusts in Homestead.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1945_South ... _hurricane

[Patrick99]

That type of set-up, with the strong SE US/Bermuda high isn't that rare. It would seem to basically be a prerequisite for any hurricane hitting South Florida from the east or southeast.

In a sense, Betsy took a similar track to Andrew, I'd say if you smooth out all of Betsy's jagged movements. Review the historical tracks, and you'll find quite a few August, September and very early October hurricanes that got caught under a high and were driven into S. FL. Andrew was not a freak event. Maybe freakishly strong, but there was nothing unusual about that track, IMO.

[Bocadude85]

Thanks for the info. I have lived in South Florida for 40 years BTW. I don't keep up on the stats as you might however it didn't seem to me that we were getting direct hits from major hurricanes as often as that. I guess I was wrong.

In the last 40 years SE Florida has only seen one major hurricane make a direct hit and that would be Andrew in 1992. But if you go back and look at the 1940's SE Fla was hit by several very powerful hurricanes. One can only assume that one day we will return to a cycle like the 1940's were we see several major hurricanes making landfall in South Florida.

[wxman57]

Thanks for the info. I have lived in South Florida for 40 years BTW. I don't keep up on the stats as you might however it didn't seem to me that we were getting direct hits from major hurricanes as often as that. I guess I was wrong.

Ah, then you weren't in Florida for the last active cycle, you arrived just after all the hurricanes hit in the 1940s, 50s and 60s. There was a big migration to Florida from the 1970s onward, all during a time of relative quiet as far as major impacts there.

[ColinDelia]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/h_prob_ann.php

Nice chart of the probability of a storm/hurricane/major hurricane passing within 100 miles of any location in the western Atlantic.

[wzrgirl1]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/h_prob_ann.php
Atlantic.

Thanks for that, very informative!!