Second hurricane dates for active years

[HurrMark]

Some people are wondering if the fact that we have not seen much in terms of intense storms that the season will be "average" or even "below average", despite all the predictions of a hyperactive season. And the chatter seems to have increased more in the last week or so, since we are statistically getting into the heart of the season. Out of curiosity, I pulled all hurricane seasons with an ACE at or above 100 (25 seasons), and found out when the second hurricane of the season formed in each:

Season ACE TS HR MH Date
1966 145 11 7 3 2-Jul
2005 248 28 15 7 6-Jul
2003 175 16 7 3 18-Jul
2008 145 16 8 5 23-Jul
1996 166 13 9 6 27-Jul
1995 228 19 11 5 1-Aug
1989 135 11 7 2 2-Aug
2004 225 14 9 6 11-Aug
1955 199 12 9 6 12-Aug
1969 158 17 12 5 15-Aug
1951 137 10 8 5 16-Aug
1980 147 11 9 2 16-Aug
1950 243 13 11 8 20-Aug
2000 116 14 8 3 21-Aug
1963 118 9 7 2 22-Aug
1999 177 12 8 5 22-Aug
1958 121 10 7 5 25-Aug
1998 182 14 10 3 25-Aug
1954 113 11 8 2 27-Aug
1953 104 14 6 4 2-Sep
1961 205 11 8 7 3-Sep
1964 170 12 6 6 3-Sep
1967 122 8 6 1 8-Sep
1988 103 12 5 3 9-Sep
2001 106 15 9 4 13-Sep


Of these 25, 13 (more than half) second-hurricanes formed after this date (another two on this date), and a decent number (6, or nearly 25%) formed after the end of August. I think that the chances of a 20+ storm season are over, but an active season is still very much in the cards.

[tolakram]

There are a bunch of people who just started paying attention to tropical weather. Maybe 2005 was their first year. They will think slow until another 2005 happens, which never will.

I still think we could be very active, but not as active as forecast due to persistent upper air patterns that we don't understand too well yet.

[hurricaneCW]

Well then we have about a week to get the 2nd hurricane. That hurricane will hopefully be the African wave right now that models have been developing.