A Strong Wave Forecast to Exit Africa Aound Sept 4

[KWT]

Remember this is exactly whaty the GFS did with both Earl and Fiona and both have developed in the end, so no reason why this one doesn't have a good chance down the line at this time of year, esp when the E/C Atlantic has been very favourable for storms to develop...

[GCANE]

Reminding me a lot of how Danielle developed off the coast.

One wave came out into the water and generated a large area of vorticity and strong mid-layer moisture.

The next wave came off the coast with a NW trajectory.

Ultimately, the interaction resulted in a TD.

NCEP ensembles at 108 hrs seem to show the same scenario with 39L and 40L.

[TheBurn]

[GCANE]

Looks like a good vorticity pool has setup here.

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS. 126 hours. 30 W

[ColinDelia]

GCANE, I believe it is PGI40L as this is the one that reaches coast on Sep 4.

[ColinDelia]

168 hours. Barely moving but deepening.



180 hours. With another wave behind

[ColinDelia]

228 hours. Deepening and pretty far North

[GCANE]

GCANE, I believe it is PGI40L as this is the one that reaches coast on Sep 4.

Yes, I believe so too - thanks.

Latest NOGAPS shows it hitting water maybe Sept 6 since it is recurving it to the NW.

May hit the water around 20N.

Forecasted OW is high though.

Looks like a potential fish for that vorticity.

However, need to watch the southern wave axis as it interacts with the ITCZ; could be a secondary spin up if the vorticity pool maintains itself off the coast.

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS. 252 hours. 45 W.

[GCANE]

CMC has something in the vorticity pool coming together in about 144 hrs.

[ColinDelia]

Out in LaLa land but for kicks...

276 hours. 48 W


348 hours. 57 W


360 hours

[ColinDelia]

PREDICT pouch synopsis
Date (UTC): 2010/09/02 13:45

Notes:

Although it looks weak in satellite imagery, the models continue
to depict a pouch for PGI40L that is eventually stronger and
larger than that of PGI39L.

ECMWF: Phase Speed: -5.1 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa
Track: 120h
Like GFS and UKMET, ECMWF dissipates the initial pouch, but then
at 24h develops one closer to PGI39L and the coast; hence the
jump.
GFS: Phase Speed: -6.2 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 120
See ECMWF above, but the jumps to the new pouch to the southwest
occurs at 48h.
UKMET: Phase Speed: -7.3 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 84h
See ECMWF above, but the jump to the new pouch to the southwest
is not complete until 60h.
NOGAPS: Phase Speed: -5.6 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 72h
No hint of a new pouch to the southwest, but there does appear
to be a new pouch that pops up to the southeast causing a jump
at 48h.