BOC (Is invest 90L)

[tailgater]

The main part of the vorticity is now moving into the BOC

[Migle]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE WITTLE
QUEBEC.

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GASTON HAVE DIMINISHED SOME THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
...HOWEVER...APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA AT ANY TIME.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

2. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

3. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY...AND
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
NNNN

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

boc buoy

[srainhoutx]

Vorticity is nearing the SW BoC. We should see 90L sooner rather than later IMO...

[lrak]

I'll jinx it and say it developes and gives S. Tx some good rains and swell action. For real though it looks like something is forming almost right over the BOC buoy.

[cycloneye]

With 40% and is not a invest?

[Migle]

With 40% and is not a invest?

I have never seen anything like this before. They gave 99L an invest when it had 20% I think?

[RL3AO]

I've seen invests with 10%.

Maybe they are waiting for it to get completely over water.

[wxman57]

Seems invest-worthy to me. Looks very TD Two-ish, as far as track and probably intensity. Could reach minimal TS, though. Not much time to organize.

[lrak]

looks like its trying to organize a little futher offshore.

[wxman57]

Buoy wind/pressure suggests the low center is in the central BOC, maybe a bit SSW of the buoy (21N/74W). Nothing near the Yucatan as far as a low center, just tstms moving offshore.

[dixiebreeze]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT SAT 04 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-096

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. PROBABLE 6-HRLY FIXES ON THE REMNANTS OF GASTON
NEAR 16.5N 55.0W AT 06/1200Z.
B. A G-IV FLIGHT FOR 07/0000Z.
C. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 22.5N 96.5W AT 06/1500Z.
3. REMARKS: NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 9 HR RESEARCH FLIGHT
INTO GASTON ABOVE 41,000 FT. DEPARTING 05/1000Z.

[dixiebreeze]

Pretty strong front moving into the gulf, may influence any development in BOC/GOM to head more NNW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp.html

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFIR.JPG

[lrak]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[cycloneye]

Is invest 90L so the thread is locked. Go to active storms/invests forum to continue the discussions.