I can't believe that wave wont get an invest tonight

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cycloneye
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I can't believe that wave wont get an invest tonight

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 18, 2003 8:11 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

Looking at it tonight it is showing signs of slow consolidation as convection is not elongated but more concentrated.The important thing is to pinpoint a LLC in that area and what better tool it is an invest where you can see very close the system.But I think that if tonight no invest 92L comes then by early morning or mid morning tommorow if the system persists with the convection then I think that 92L will appear.
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#2 Postby jabber » Mon Aug 18, 2003 8:14 pm

I agree.. This is the first wave that has had substained convection with it. Not a pulse up pulse down etc. She looks to be getting tighter. Unless she fizzels tonight we will get our invest.
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#3 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Aug 18, 2003 8:18 pm

I mentioned that the convection with this system has been persistent for about 24 hours already, if not longer.

What has developed during the day on Monday is at least evidence of what this system may do. The Tropical Prediction Center is giving it potential seeing what it has done thus far, up to this point.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Tue Aug 19, 2003 1:43 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#4 Postby mf_dolphin » Mon Aug 18, 2003 8:41 pm

With the distance from land I just think they are being patient. While there's been a close circulation according to QuickScat the winds have been pretty light. There's plenty of time for this system left. I agree on an Invest tomoroow in all likelyhood
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Re: I can't believe that wave wont get an invest tonight

#5 Postby Scott_inVA » Mon Aug 18, 2003 9:50 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

Looking at it tonight it is showing signs of slow consolidation as convection is not elongated but more concentrated.The important thing is to pinpoint a LLC in that area and what better tool it is an invest where you can see very close the system.But I think that if tonight no invest 92L comes then by early morning or mid morning tommorow if the system persists with the convection then I think that 92L will appear.


I agree but one thing to remember about INVESTs. They are issued by DOD/Dept of the Navy and not NOAA/TPC/NHC. Invests are essentially alerts to surface USN fleets in the general vicinity. I'm not connected in any of this but was told long ago USN communicates with NOAA and models typically are initialized at the issuance of an Invest. Unless things have changed the Navy calls the shots on Invests. We just live and die by them :wink:

Scott
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#6 Postby rainstorm » Mon Aug 18, 2003 10:33 pm

what about that huge dry air surge steve showed?
development with this wave will be very slow. it looks like it is stretching out along the dry air boundary.
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#7 Postby wx247 » Tue Aug 19, 2003 7:47 am

Doesn't look as organized this morning. Hmmm....
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