2010 Atlantic season so far...

[jinftl]

I am taking some help from Wikipedia with the stats below, but when we begin to take a look at what has transpired this season to date in the Atlantic, in many ways the predictions of a very active season have already panned out without question. What we have not seen...thankfully...are any of the mega-landfall events like we saw in seasons like 2004 and 2005 and 2008 - major hurricane events effecting entire regions of coastline and literally impacting millions of people. Even still, estimated damage across the basin has eclipsed $6 billion and over 100 people have been killed.

From the standpoint of meterologic data and stats, the 2010 season has unquestionably demonstrated just how active it has been with the following remarkable stats:

• As of October 2, 2010, the 2010 hurricane season has seen:

Total Depressions: 16
Total Named Storms: 14
Total Hurricanes: 7
Total Major Hurricanes: 5
Total Fatalities: 102 direct, 21 indirect
Total Damage: Est. $6.135 billion (estimates for Karl: $3.9 billion, Alex: $1.9 billion)


Statistics (so far) for the 2010 Atlantic season:

• Season featured the formation of 11 named storms in about 40 days, six of which were Cape Verde-type storms.

• Four of those Cape Verde storms (Danielle, Earl, Igor and Julia) each reached Category 4 intensity and a fifth in the Caribbean (Karl) also became a major hurricane.

• Igor, Julia, and Karl were back to back to back major hurricanes.

• From August 21 to September 26, there was not a single full day without at least one storm active for a total of 36 days, starting with the formation of Hurricane Danielle and ending with the dissipation of Hurricane Lisa, the longest period since the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season, which had remained completely active for 45 days from August 29 to October 12, 2002. (Not even 2005 had such a period of constant activity)

• In the month of September, eight named storms formed, which is the highest ever recorded, tying with the season of 2002.

• In addition, there were 3 occasions when 3 tropical cyclones were active simultaneously, with the first set being Danielle, Earl, and Fiona co-existing on August 30-31. The second occasion was when Earl, Fiona, and Gaston co-existed on September 1-2 and briefly on September 4, when Gaston regained tropical depression status. The third and most notable was when Igor, Julia, and Karl were active September 14-18.

• During a brief period, on September 15, Igor and Julia were simultaneously category 4 hurricanes, an extremely rare occurrence and the first such occurrence since 1926.

• Both Igor and Julia were still hurricanes when Karl was upgraded to a hurricane on September 16, the first time since the 1998 season that there were at least three simultaneous hurricanes in the North Atlantic.

• ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) so far this season is 130.8. By comparison, the mean ACE for the entire season for the period 1950-2009 has been 101.2.

• The ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) for Hurricane Igor was 42.4, the highest of any storm in the Atlantic since Hurricane Ivan in 2004.

source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Atlan ... ane_season



A picture is definitely worth a thousand words - tracks of the 2010 atlantic storms to date:

[gatorcane]

It's been the perfect setup for the united states so far. We see there has been a stubborn ridge over the the southeastern united states and northern gulf of Mexico. That has blocked the significant systems that developed in the Caribbean. Then on the Atlantic side there has been a persistent trough most of this season which has deflected storms away from the east coast.

You just can't ask for a better setup this year to prevent united states landfalls. It has been active but not for the united states. Now looking ahead only the eastern gom and southern Florida are at risk. For everyone else in the united states, looks like it is over.

[jinftl]

Good point...perhaps the assumption is (and rightfully so i would say in an effort to plan for the worst) that if a season is forecast to be very active, that this means there will be alot of landfalling storms. That is not necessarily the case.....the atlantic has been on steroids for the last 5 weeks or so, but the steering patterns have been our saving grace, and this show of fury has largely been only an issue for fish.

I always come back to this analogy....if someone told me there was a season with only 7 named storms, and the first storm didn't get named to mid-august, i would think that this could only be a dud season that would quickly be forgotten - until I learn that this was the 1992 season, and the first storm was Andrew.

The only caveat that i put out there is that sometimes the very troughs that deflected the cape verde systems out to sea are the very same patterns that would eject a system in the nw caribbean north and east over cuba, florida, etc....that is a 'wild card' that will hang over us for the next 4-6 weeks.

It's been the perfect setup for the united states so far. We see there has been a stubborn ridge over the the southeastern united states and northern gulf of Mexico. That has blocked the significant systems that developed in the Caribbean. Then on the Atlantic side there has been a persistent trough most of this season which has deflected storms away from the east coast.

You just can't ask for a better setup this year to prevent united states landfalls. It has been active but not for the united states. Now looking ahead only the eastern gom and southern Florida are at risk. For everyone else in the united states, looks like it is over.

[Ptarmigan]

Good point...perhaps the assumption is (and rightfully so i would say in an effort to plan for the worst) that if a season is forecast to be very active, that this means there will be alot of landfalling storms. That is not necessarily the case.....the atlantic has been on steroids for the last 5 weeks or so, but the steering patterns have been our saving grace, and this show of fury has largely been only an issue for fish.

I always come back to this analogy....if someone told me there was a season with only 7 named storms, and the first storm didn't get named to mid-august, i would think that this could only be a dud season that would quickly be forgotten - until I learn that this was the 1992 season, and the first storm was Andrew.

The only caveat that i put out there is that sometimes the very troughs that deflected the cape verde systems out to sea are the very same patterns that would eject a system in the nw caribbean north and east over cuba, florida, etc....that is a 'wild card' that will hang over us for the next 4-6 weeks.

It just takes one. Alicia happened in one of the least active seasons on record in 1983. The Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 occurred in a below average season likely due to the effects of El Nino. 1900 was an El Nino we were coming off of.

ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Ind ... y.filter-5

1900
7/3/2
ACE=84

1983
4/3/1
ACE=17

1992
7/4/1
ACE=75