Invest 92L is for real

[rob8303]

For all the other storms of the season, I had a feeling that they wouldn't develop, like Invest 90 for example. Invest 92L is different. My feeling with this one is much more ominous and given the model tracks, I think it may soon be time to hit the panic button. Not yet though.
Again, just a feeling I have. By the way, I was ready to make a post declaring the CV season dead yesterday not now.
Given the track, if I had to guess, I would say Fabian will do one of 3
things
1) approach Miami as Cat 1 but then recurve out to sea FOREVER or hit Miami and then recurve
2) approach and hit Miami as a cat 1/perhaps weak 2 hurricane, then track into the gulf and intensify before hitting Louisania (hopefully, god I hope not, New Orleans)
3) Get torn up over Cuba/Hispaniola

Does anyone think that this thing will be a t.d/ts before 11 pm NHC advisory tommorow.

I'll go out on a limb and predict a cat 2 hurricane will brush Miami on it's way to the GOM and hit Louisania as a category 3 or 4 hurricane.
All I know is for the first time since Lili last year, I am seriously nervous about a hurricane.

I'll

[wxman57]

You could be right about such a track, but it's way too early to tell. Steering currents won't be well-established beyond day 3-4.

As for it becoming a TD/TS by 11pm tomorrow, that's highly unlikely. Convection is dissipating again tonight. I think itt's still at least 36 hours away from a TD. Maybe by 11pm Friday, but may be a 50/50 shot between Friday or Saturday.

[Stormsfury]

I'm not so sure about the intensity either, but that track unfortunately seems very viable given the progged pattern setup in the next 5-7 days.

And I agree on the 50/50 shot of a T.D or a T.S. after 36 hours.

SF

[Lindaloo]

I am sure Bonnie will not want to read this thread.

New Orleans does not have the ability to withstand a cane of that magnitude. So, make it go somewhere else.

[rainstorm]

i say no development at all. it is possible though that it may combine with an ull in the gom and eventually do something

[mf_dolphin]

You taking bets rainstorm? I will take some of that action if you are

[rainstorm]

betting is bad. i just see a rather hostile environment for it. i dont think it will be a ts or cane before florida, and i think it is most likely to get pulled north west and stretch out eventually

[mf_dolphin]

The only thing I see as hostile is some dry air to the north. You posted earlier about west winds but I don't see any west winds in the vicinity. Everything's out of the east from what I see.

[rainstorm]

west winds in the so carib, plus now there appears to be an ull heading south around 49w, as someone pointed out at twc. that could be bad for the eastern waves. we will see