Correction to earlier post- Invest 92 has dissipated

[rob8303]

Such is the trouble with making bold predictions, now I must eat crow. In the channel 4 eastern atlantic satelite loop, the wave is dissipating. In the last frame, 92l looks almost completely destroyed. It's a goner folks. I can't believe how quickly this thing utterly, utterly, fell apart. I'm new to satelite imagery. Maybe I read the wave wrong. Perhaps?

[ColdFront77]

Rob, again, just because convection weakening in a tropical wave doesn't mean that it cannot develop, even in the near future.

Sure, some waves have convection that falls apart and it doesn't regain it. We don't know that now and we know that the conditions remain favorable for tropical development in the next few days.

[MortisFL]

Rob, give it time... today it could re-fire into a TD.

[Anonymous]

I actually think maybe it looked worse last night Rob. Looking at it right now looks ragged but still think it has potential, it will be moving into a more favorable environment within the next 24-36 hours, more moist air and also bath tub water. If the invest is cancelled today I feel sure it will be invested for sure on Friday. But my own opinion is that it will probably be invested today.

[Steve H.]

Patience is the key, and we've had to have plenty of it! The low lovel circulaation is there and convection is beginning to rebuild. Yesterday I thought it was a go also, but the environment was not the best. Today should be a different story, and it will get away from the alledged "hurricane graveyard." Watch today. Models develop a couple of features in the Atlantic. AVN bridges the Azores and Bermuda high. GFDL dropped developing 92L, but I still feel this will develop. Cold front drops to Georgia over the weekend, then High pressure builds over the N. Carolina coast early next week. That's when things get interesting Cheerz!!!

[wxman57]

I thought that I had seen an outflow boundary moving westward out of the disturbance late yesterday afternoon - a sign that the tstms were collapsing near the core. While I agree that this is most likely a temporary set-back, there is still no evidence at all of a SURFACE circulation. The spin you see on satellite is probably between 5000-10000 feet above the water. Such spin is common in tropical disturbance, and it doesn't assure development. I've reduced what I think are chances for develoment to 40-50% today from 60% yesterday. As with any wave, it has the potential to develop rapidly after it reaches the central Caribbean. But such development has now been pushed forward beyond 48 hours, possibly not until 4-5 days if/when it enters the Gulf.

One note - the new GFS moes it west to Jamaica then north to just east of Miami, then west into the Gulf, just as the GFDL did yesterday.

[rainstorm]

i think we have all forgotten what a wave with thunderstorms looks like. we are reduced to staring
at convectionless waves. i hope we get a bonafide dist soon.

[Anonymous]

I agree rainstorm.

[Steve H.]

You're right wxman, there is no discernable LLC. Used the wrong words. But it is more than a wave, as a wave generally has no associated rotation. This is an area of low pressure; that's how it should have been characterized. What's up with taking it west of Jamaica, then east of Miami, then into the GOM?? That would be mean it run due north along 80W across Cuba to a position between Nassau and Miami, then WNW :o Obviously some smoothing of the curve would be in order, but it seems that the return to the west would be due to building high pressure off the mid Atlantic coast.

[mf_dolphin]

Well the convection is refiring this morning as expected. Now the questions are 1. Will it close off a surface low and 2. Will is sustain convection. Only time will tell but I'm betting yes for both.

[Johnny]

It is far from dissipation. Convection if firing up nicely and it is quite evident by the radar loop that it has an mlc. It died out last night because it is not in the best place for development. Also it lost alot of energy due to daytime heating. If it can sustain it's convection overnight then we need to keep a very close eye on it. Not like we aren't already doing that!