11 AM Advisory=Better organized moving WNW at 12 mph

[cycloneye]

http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Tropics/TD9.htm

16.4n-68.6w

[bfez1]

One sec it's falling apart, the next it's better organized. I'm so confused.

[Amanzi]

Yep Bonnie... you and me both! Some say its an open wave some say it's better organized... sheesh! It's like watching a game of tennis

[bfez1]

Geesh, it's giving me a headache, Bron.

[alicia-w]

and this loop looks like there might be a bit of circulation...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.tjua.shtml

[Steve H.]

Its actually been getting better organized thgroughout the morning....a bit of shear, but otherwise OK. If it gets north of Haiti into the SE Bahamas we might have trouble. If it runs the spine of the islands it won't do much until it gets to the GOM. Depends on the track. It could still come up toward the Florida east coast as stated by the models, but the BAMs, etc will shift around before this is done. :o

[mf_dolphin]

TD 9 has been bouncing around for the last couple of days LOL It's really not unusual for a weak but developing system. Looks like this week-end will tell us alot about the future of our little wave

[Air Force Met]

I don't understand 2 things here:
1) Better organized? QuikSCAT shows a sharp wave and nothing more. There is a hint of a midlevel circ but no LLC.
2) How in the world does a weak ts go inland over Hispaniola...only weaken 5 kts and reemerge as a TS? TD#9 or TS Fabian has a date with the big island and I don't see it coming out better for it. It usually takes 24 hours or so just to get itself back together...much less strengthen.

All I can say is we'll see. I will be very interested to see what recon finds when it gets out there. One thing as a side note though: IF there is a small LLC where the NHC puts it...and it is certainly possible...they have the 1/4 km res stuff...I don't...one thing is for sure...there is a LOT of lower level clouds moving away from that LLC....and the east winds are just ahead of the system...so it is not a well defined LLC at all. So...there is divergence ahead of the system and that is never good.

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... s_nt4.html

Here is the interesting discussion of why it is better organized this morning and close to TS Fabian status.Also about the future track is concerned many IFS are there to analize about.

[bfez1]

So folks, the bottom line is to just keep watching!!!

[Air Force Met]

Yes...we need to wait and see. I see the overall pattern a little better organized from earlier...but the lower levels look terrible. East winds 60 miles west of the center do not spell a well organized lower level system.

[Guest]

What we got here folks is a developing tropical system. How many times have we seen this scenario this year - this is #9!!!!!!

And where its at now isn't conducive for rapid, intense development.

My one and half cents.

[Air Force Met]

I agree Ticka. We have a weak low level system that has been crank started from the mid-levels for about 3 days now. There is a really good MLC today and the question remains: Will that MLC finally reach far enough down to get the LLC spinning enough to start some good development. The system is really weak on the west side due to the lower level divergence coming out of the wave axis. If there is a LLC (and I would not kill the system based on what I see...just would not upgrade it until recon gets there if it weren't already)...it is embedded in a wave axis and there is a lot of divergence ahead of it. It has to get wrapped up and get some big mo before it goes into Hispaniola. That island will always rip a weak system.