JB's Hurricane tease.

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OuterBanker
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JB's Hurricane tease.

#1 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Mar 30, 2011 4:00 pm

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=593

Looks like he's looking at 96, 99 and 05. Not good for nobody.
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#2 Postby hurricanetrack » Thu Mar 31, 2011 9:34 am

Those neutral seasons or season 2 of La Nina can be nasty. At least there is history to that, and not just speculation and hype. Been a long time since a serious hurricane affected land in the U.S. Someone's number could be up. Wish we had more notice of exactly who.
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Re: JB's Hurricane tease.

#3 Postby wxman57 » Thu Mar 31, 2011 2:16 pm

OuterBanker wrote:http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=593

Looks like he's looking at 96, 99 and 05. Not good for nobody.


You left out his best analog - 2008.
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Re: JB's Hurricane tease.

#4 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Mar 31, 2011 4:00 pm

You are right Wxman. 2008 also.
So just about everyone from Tx to NC are under the gun from both Accuweather and JB it seems
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Re: JB's Hurricane tease.

#5 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Mar 31, 2011 5:51 pm

I understand using analogs for general guidelines. However, I have yet to see scientific evidence that supports using analog years for landfall threats in specific areas such as Texas or the Carolinas. There have been past seasons that have used 2004 or 2005 as analog years (both bad years for the Pensacola area) and we were hardly brushed.

Maybe there is, but I would like to see some follow ups of past seasons and the analog years used at the start of those seasons and see how it worked out. I don't think the science it there yet.
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Re: JB's Hurricane tease.

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 06, 2011 1:14 pm

JB is between 13-15 named storms for 2011.He says,global cooling is the cause of the lower numbers than TSR and CSU.

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=845

More on the global cooling theory by him:

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?category ... _home_page
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