My two cents worth.......

[Stormchaser16]

Things getting very interesting, first of all I would like to reiterate what i was starting to get at yesterday.....

Well let me be bold about it and im going to say WATCH OUT EAST COAST......./Gulf of Mexico....Flooding threat STILL imminent along the east coast..... as what appears to be a stalled front coming in by the weekend........Labor day weekend headaches? Seems to be looking that way as the current front out midwest charges eastward and then stalls along the eastern seaboard through AT LEAST day 7. This is a potent front that is expected to charge up severe thunderstorms tommorow in the midwestern states. And to think.... this is all coming towards us.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfcnps.gif
There is a current look at the front now(the one further west)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif
Day 6^
Stationary for the most part.And this means we will be looking at a potent SW wind persisting for a few days, meaning at LEAST very humid warm air with a good chance of thunderstorms, and possibly flooding, with the greatest chances increasing the further south you progress.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99qwbg.gif
No lack of moisture at all with this front coming through. PLENTY of tropical moisture to work with as it picks it up with the SW winds.....

Onto my second point, it MAY pick up some type of tropical disturbance that is forecast to be in the Bahamas region during the latter part of the day 7 period. Not to mention the very strong Low presure that all models have attached to the norther naxis of the front, just adding to headaches.

Onto ANOTHER point before i break the REAL bad news to all of you.....
MOST models develop something in the gulf and steer it towards the Texas coastline.... Until i see the system that they are trying to develop then i wont honk about this.

Ok now the killer......
Oh how do i say this????
Ok like this....... TD10/Fabian IS AN EAST COAST THREAT, thats right you heard me correctly...... with high pressure building off the NErn seaboard,nothing out there to turn out north, and a stalled front, this system has the makings of a REAL REAL headache! Has ANYONE seen the EC tonight? No? Here it is....O and i know its JUST a model, but the consistency in its track for the last 4 days has been nothing short of amazing/scary.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... s!latest!/
Now if that isnt enough to get you thinking then i dont know what is. It HAS sunk it slightly further SOUTH over its past few runs only because the system has taken longer to develop/meaning a further south path, now most models make it a very close call as to whether the Lesser Antilles get hit or not..... I still say Ne of there but not by much, and probably as a moderate/strong TS, but with the possiblity of strengthening more down the road. I say this because the wave out ahead of it, is being sheared bigtime, and this looks like where soon to be Fabian may be heading. So....... with the already potential flooding setup, i believe that this tropical cyclone could only add to the problems. :o Getting more scary everytime i check in.

O and the EC also has a gulf system, with a broad low pressure center developing by early weekend in the southwest gulf and then moving north as it strengthens and moves towards the north texas border. Ill have a map out soon.

[Stephanie]

You could be right Stormchaser! This will be one busy board for the next week or so.

[Stormchaser16]

Here is a rough sketch of what I think fabian will wind up doing.....

Also note the potential for a system near the Bahamas, not likely but possible according to some stuff i have seen. Fabian could come much closer then I have shown here depending on how much the High pressure in the atlantic can suppress it.... also depending on exactly how progressive the front may become by days 7-10. So there are many variables but I think that Fabian will be a close call to an East Coast system. Im thinking Fabian has the possbility of reach category two strength, as it appears some of the models even lose it as it nears the island(shear zone), but ill have to check progs on this before i lower my intensity forecast, as i will not do now because i believe it will get stronger.

http://www.villagephotos.com/viewimage.asp?id_=4578524

[Stormsfury]

Hey Stormchaser. I posted the EURO on another thread ... and pretty much am impressed once again with the EURO's consistent outputs.

It very well COULD be an EC threat ... but if Invest 93L throws a surprise (by developing in a badly sheared environment) ... future Fabian is a fish storm ...

SF

[Stormchaser16]

I will not back down on this forecast until i see Fabian turning away north way way earlier then i am thinking now. I am currently going to do a full review on data.

[Stormchaser16]

That is correct stormsfury..... and i am going to be watching what 93L does in the coming days as far as development wise. But i am VERY confident Fabian will stay south because all models are indicating strong high pressure dominating the atlantic basin. Combine this with a weak tropical system(most models dissipate future Fabian by the time it reaches the islands, but then some pick back up on it) and you have the makings of a system staying further south.

Im actually wondering if what these models are developing in the gulf to be somehow connected to 93L, if anyone could find where this system is coming from, that would be appreicated.

[Stormsfury]

That is correct stormsfury..... and i am going to be watching what 93L does in the coming days as far as development wise. But i am VERY confident Fabian will stay south because all models are indicating strong high pressure dominating the atlantic basin. Combine this with a weak tropical system(most models dissipate future Fabian by the time it reaches the islands, but then some pick back up on it) and you have the makings of a system staying further south.

Im actually wondering if what these models are developing in the gulf to be somehow connected to 93L, if anyone could find where this system is coming from, that would be appreicated.

Actually, Stormchaser, the EURO and the Canadian are picking up on an area of vorticity exiting the Yucatan Peninsula (and it might just be the remnants of #9) around Day 4 and moving WNW or NW towards TX ... (or possibly the current Caribbean convection?) but it's nonetheless a complex situation ...

There could be something else as well with the MLC currently in the GOM now, or an area of disturbed weather marching out from the BOC.

Interesting NOGAPS now takes the current Caribbean mess into Florida and wants to close something off at 120 HRS in the Eastern Gulf (ala Erika), and also wants to spin up 93L 4 days from now. The UKMET so some degree, hints at 93L doing a little something.

It's gonna be crazy ...

[GalvestonDuck]

Since TD 10 will most likely become Fabian, then IF something forms next in the Gulf, it will be Grace...and a large percentage of people on the boad picked Grace to be the Big One.

*shivers*

[stormie_skies]

Don't even say that, Duck :o LOL.....guess we will have to watch and see!

[Stormchaser16]

Ahhhh my mistake on 93L there, well that one isnt developing either IMO,,,, too much shear right over it

[Stormchaser16]

Rumor has it that the remants of 9 are gonna get active again.....

[Stormsfury]

I just cant see 93L developing into anything until it gets into the gulf.... why you ask?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8ir.html
Being sheared out the wazoo lol.......

Can't argue with that ... 93L is generating healthy convection, but this is likely being enhanced by divergent shear.

SF

[Stormchaser16]

I made the mistake on 93L, 93L is the one just northwest of soon to be Fabian...... i was referring to the wave in the caribbean as saying it wont develop into it heads into the gulf, sorry for the confusion

[Stormsfury]

I made the mistake on 93L, 93L is the one just northwest of soon to be Fabian...... i was referring to the wave in the caribbean as saying it wont develop into it heads into the gulf, sorry for the confusion

*LOL*...I used the quote from the previous post. The Caribbean blob is downright choatic ... less organized than a meeting of Congress.

SF

[Stormchaser16]

HAHA.... yea but it could be a player in the gulf IF any of that convection can get in there

[Anonymous]

Things getting very interesting, first of all I would like to reiterate what i was starting to get at yesterday.....

Well let me be bold about it and im going to say WATCH OUT EAST COAST......./Gulf of Mexico....Flooding threat STILL imminent along the east coast..... as what appears to be a stalled front coming in by the weekend........Labor day weekend headaches? Seems to be looking that way as the current front out midwest charges eastward and then stalls along the eastern seaboard through AT LEAST day 7. This is a potent front that is expected to charge up severe thunderstorms tommorow in the midwestern states. And to think.... this is all coming towards us.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfcnps.gif
There is a current look at the front now(the one further west)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif
Day 6^
Stationary for the most part.And this means we will be looking at a potent SW wind persisting for a few days, meaning at LEAST very humid warm air with a good chance of thunderstorms, and possibly flooding, with the greatest chances increasing the further south you progress.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99qwbg.gif
No lack of moisture at all with this front coming through. PLENTY of tropical moisture to work with as it picks it up with the SW winds.....

Onto my second point, it MAY pick up some type of tropical disturbance that is forecast to be in the Bahamas region during the latter part of the day 7 period. Not to mention the very strong Low presure that all models have attached to the norther naxis of the front, just adding to headaches.

Onto ANOTHER point before i break the REAL bad news to all of you.....
MOST models develop something in the gulf and steer it towards the Texas coastline.... Until i see the system that they are trying to develop then i wont honk about this.

Ok now the killer......
Oh how do i say this????
Ok like this....... TD10/Fabian IS AN EAST COAST THREAT, thats right you heard me correctly...... with high pressure building off the NErn seaboard,nothing out there to turn out north, and a stalled front, this system has the makings of a REAL REAL headache! Has ANYONE seen the EC tonight? No? Here it is....O and i know its JUST a model, but the consistency in its track for the last 4 days has been nothing short of amazing/scary.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... s!latest!/
Now if that isnt enough to get you thinking then i dont know what is. It HAS sunk it slightly further SOUTH over its past few runs only because the system has taken longer to develop/meaning a further south path, now most models make it a very close call as to whether the Lesser Antilles get hit or not..... I still say Ne of there but not by much, and probably as a moderate/strong TS, but with the possiblity of strengthening more down the road. I say this because the wave out ahead of it, is being sheared bigtime, and this looks like where soon to be Fabian may be heading. So....... with the already potential flooding setup, i believe that this tropical cyclone could only add to the problems. :o Getting more scary everytime i check in.

O and the EC also has a gulf system, with a broad low pressure center developing by early weekend in the southwest gulf and then moving north as it strengthens and moves towards the north texas border. Ill have a map out soon.

Stormchaser and everyone else on this board that's an expert on these tropical systems, I have three questions for ya:

If TD10/Fabian obtains and hits the EC as expected, will it give N VA very heavy rains? And how much? Would I stand a good chance of getting 12 to 20 inches of rain here in Woodbridge?

'Cuz I am a severe rain addict, the only thing I like more than Training Torrential rains is a Stationary Blizzard with 36 to 48 inches of snow and 50 mph winds with 20-foot drifts!!

Thanks in advance,
-Jeb

[Stormchaser16]

In response to question 1: IF the system were to hit(or come close, the point of closest encounter would most likely be right off the midatlantic coast line... bearing in mind that the system would be moving off to the north or northeast and picking up forward speed because of interaction with the frontal axis,I wouldnt expect a MAJOR rain event unless it were to come onshore. 12-20 inches? I doubt that would happen at all even if it came on shore because like i said it would be moving off more quickly and the worst quadrant would most likely still be offshore. If it makes a close encounter then coastal areas *could* pick up 1-4 inches of rain possibly depending on exact distance from shore and speed.

[Anonymous]

Yeah, I got a LOT to learn about these tropical systems. LOL!

I'm always looking for the blockbuster excitement of a seriously heavy rain event!!

If what you are saying could happen does happen, then it will at least give us East Coasters some excitement.

Too bad there's no way that puppy could somehow get hung up along VA's coast and interact with that front and rotate some big rains over my region.

There's nothing like a good, old-fashioned hard rain.


-Jeb

[Stormchaser16]

Whatever this system decides to do..... it should be quite interesting.... STRONG multiple highs off to the north covering the central and northern atlantic, if this thing doesnt get too strong too fast then it will stay under these and move just to the NE of the lesser antilles

[Anonymous]

It is looking pretty intresting at the tip of the Gulf now.