Special Tropical Disturbance Statement

[vbhoutex]

000
WONT41 KNHC 301315
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
COAST. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Anonymous]

They didn't mention Louisiana I wonder why?

[GalvestonDuck]

They didn't mention Louisiana I wonder why?

Probably because the models ( http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=11392 ) seem to show it going to the central TX coast.

[Stormsfury]

Avila wrote that tropical disturbance statement.

Well, anyway, there looks like a lot of baroclinic effects on this one since the ULL is producing quite a bit of divergence and enhancing convection.

SF

[vbhoutex]

The center of future minimal TS Grace(according to some models)is expected to landfall near Matagorda Bay on the N Central TX coast in 24-36hrs. Most of the convection and any winds associated with this storm will be to the North, East and Southeast of the center. That means the upper TX coast and much of Lousiana are in for a major rain event over the next two days. This system may become a major weather maker for much of the area from TX up through AR, TN and points East as it ride along the advancing front coming in from the N. Even Central Texas needs to watch this system due to the possiblity of heavy flooding rains in the TX hill country.

[Colin]

Very interesting! :o People in that area (Ticka, GalvestonDuck, David, etc...) need to watch this very, very closely! :o

[vbhoutex]

Ok am I crazy or is the ULL beginning to move Westward?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[wxman57]

Looks exactly like Allison of 2001 on satellite, to me. I better get my umbrella out of the car. It's going to be wet here in southeast Texas for the next 3-4 days. Hopefully we don't get 35+ inches of rain in one night this time.

[Stormsfury]

Looks exactly like Allison of 2001 on satellite, to me. I better get my umbrella out of the car. It's going to be wet here in southeast Texas for the next 3-4 days. Hopefully we don't get 35+ inches of rain in one night this time.

Eerily looks a lot like Allison, but hopefully (and IMO) this is a much quicker mover than Allison.

SF

[Guest]

Can I ask a question? Won't this system be trapped - with the front to the north and the ULL to the west - where will this tropical system go... Could it rain itself out over the SE texas area?

[weatherlover427]

Oh No ... not another Allison. :o Stay safe all Houston and Galveston area residents! :o

[vbhoutex]

Can I ask a question? Won't this system be trapped - with the front to the north and the ULL to the west - where will this tropical system go... Could it rain itself out over the SE texas area?

Currently it appears it will move into Central TX and then start to follow the front to the NE and out of our area. but that could take as much as 48 hours and that means PLENTY OF RAIN for all of SE TX!

[DJJordan]

Houston could use the rain to catch up the deficit....but not all at once...