Tropical wave passing 50W

[Gustywind]

Might be a Ghost Storm

Why do you say that?

[northjaxpro]

Convection has made a bit of a comeback this morning over this now analyzed 1012mb Tropical Low by NHC near 21N 39W at 8.a.m TWD.

A trend would have to start consistently to see if the convection can hold togther for a period of time with this area. This wave has struggled for most of its time traversing the tropical East Atlantic, so will have to see if this wave tries to get its act together.. It is something to keep an eye on still, especially if long range models verify that strong riging builds in across the Atlantic basin in the coming days.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD says that the low will dissipate.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N41W TO A NEARLY DISSIPATED 1013 MB
LOW NEAR 14N37W. WHILE THERE IS CLEAR CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS...IT APPEARS
THAT IT HAS OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH WITHOUT A CLOSED CIRCULATION
AROUND THE LOW. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS
NO LONGER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND MAY DAMPEN OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...BUT A DISCERNIBLE FEATURE CAN BE TRACKED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND MAY BEGIN TO GAIN A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN ITS MOTION. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE WAVE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 32W-39W.

[Fego]

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N49W TO
13N46W. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N48W.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

It hasn't a lot of posibilities, but imho its path would give us some hint about 95L future.

[Aric Dunn]

Still watching this area. the low level vorticity seems to be on the increase and although convection is being sheared it is heading due west and distance between it and katia is increasing. if it were to develop it would be a few days from now when upper winds become a little more favorable as it approaches the lesser Antilles. its crossing 50 to 55 west right now.

shear

[HurricaneFan]

But if its at 50 to 55w now wouldn't it reach the Lesser Antilles late tomorrow?How much will it flare up as it approaches?Can it actually still develop before the Lesser Antilles?,because that would be suprising.

[Aric Dunn]

But if its at 50 to 55w now wouldn't it reach the Lesser Antilles late tomorrow?How much will it flare up as it approaches?Can it actually still develop before the Lesser Antilles?,because that would be suprising.

not likely to develop before lesser antilies. its heading duw west and should continue to. then with a little more wnw motion development would not happen ( if at all till it either goes north of hispaniola or south).

[Aric Dunn]

fairly good indication of its likely time frame

12z NAM
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Extratropical94]

Should be the right thread, but I'm not sure.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER
THESE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Is this the system that the Euro has been showing as developing over the next week? Doesn't it show both the BOC disturbance and this developing, with this ending up on the west coast of Cuba in a few days as a weak system?

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 061804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N52W 15N51W 11N49W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 54W AND 55W. OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

[Gustywind]

Twave near 50W/55W

[Aric Dunn]

12z Nam showing more develop..

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[BigB0882]

I wonder if the BOC system could help to moisten the Gulf region and pave the way for this to come barreling through without the same dry air problems every other storm has had in the Gulf? Could be one to watch and could be a surprise! No idea if this will develop or go poof.