Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles

[colbroe]

Tropical wave is analyzed from 17n38w to 08n45w moving W at
15-20 kt. A fairly amplified and elongated low-level cyclonic
flow is evident on visible satellite imagery in the vicinity of
the wave axis across the central tropical Atlc. Total
precipitable water imagery also indicates the presence of
increased low-level moisture from 10n to 19n between 35w and
44w. Scattered moderate convection remains mostly east of the
wave axis occurring from 10n to 14n between 36w and 43w.
Isolated moderate convection is also occurring within 30 nm
either side of a line from 13n44w to 10n48w.

[rockyman]

Any model support today? is this another up and out situation?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NOGAPS foresees something weak from this system approaching the Leewards in 4 days.



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[BigA]

FIM and NOGAPS develop this, with the NOGAPS zealously strengthening it to a hurricane by the 180 hour period. The FOX WRF model also hints at development Until the more reliable models get on board I'm intriuiged, but not convinced.

But, and this is of some importance, both the NOGAPS and FIM show the storm moving westward through the Bahamas or over Cuba under the influence of a stout ridge, not getting recurved. So it deserves monitoring.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MARIA CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ON
TROPICAL STORM NATE CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[wxman57]

Doesn't look very impressive. Check it out on the TPW loop. No rotation and not much moisture:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[alienstorm]

The area to the southeast of this complex is the area were I can see development in the next 2 - 3 days as it moves w-wnw

[HurricaneWarning92]

I think it has more rotation than it did a few days ago.

[Gustywind]

8 AM TWD:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N42W 13N46W 9N49W.
ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 3N TO 19N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. SOME OF THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE RELATED JUST TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

[Gustywind]

Loop.

[underthwx]

how low can can you go.......what is the track of this wave?...




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ConvergenceZone]

:uarrow: how low can can you go.......what is the track of this wave?...




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yea, looks like that's heading right into CA which will negate any possibility of development.