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http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P32L.html
SYNOPSIS 2011092200
P32L
7N, 8W
700 hPa
ECMWF: Tracks northwestward. Intensifies for a few days, then weakens.
GFS: Starts well to the south (~3N), then tracks northwestward, with gradually increasing OW values.
UKMET: Faster than GFS with only slightly increasing OW values.
NOGAPS: Medium speed with gradually increasing OW values.
HWRF-GEN: Weakens as it comes off of Africa, splitting into two potential pouches. (Uncertain positions at 24-36 hours.) The eastern one becomes the dominant pouch that I track; the western one dissipates quickly. Intensifies soon thereafter and tracks northwestward.
ECMWF -7.4 v700 120h
GFS -5.1 v700 120h
UKMET -8.1 v700 120h
NOGAPS -5.7 v700 120h
HWGEN -7.4 v700 120h
Pouch P32L SSE of CV Islands - 10%
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tolakram
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Re: Pouch P32L SE of CV Islands
Moved to Talkin' Tropics
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M a r k
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cycloneye
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Re: Pouch P32L SE of CV Islands
Is getting very late for the Eastern Atlantic to develop something,especially with this seasons enviromental conditions that have prevailed.
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cycloneye
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Re: Pouch P32L SE of CV Islands
Interesting excerpt from the San Juan NWS discussion.
A NICE LIKE
LOOKING WAVE EAST OF 20W NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST IS FCST TO DEVELOP
INTO A TC DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AND TRACK ACROOS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
THE WAVE IS STILL AROUND 10 DAYS FROM APPROACHING THE ISLANDS
BASED ON LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND CLIMATOLOGY. GFS SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM AS A ANOTHER STRONGLY SHEAR TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE H85
AND H7 MB CIRCULATIONS WELL DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE
SURFACE CENTER.
A NICE LIKE
LOOKING WAVE EAST OF 20W NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST IS FCST TO DEVELOP
INTO A TC DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AND TRACK ACROOS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS.
THE WAVE IS STILL AROUND 10 DAYS FROM APPROACHING THE ISLANDS
BASED ON LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND CLIMATOLOGY. GFS SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM AS A ANOTHER STRONGLY SHEAR TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE H85
AND H7 MB CIRCULATIONS WELL DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE
SURFACE CENTER.
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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cycloneye
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Re: Pouch P32L SE of CV Islands
10%
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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AdamFirst
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Maybe one of the last chances for a powerhouse Cape Verde storm...time is running out
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wxman57
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Re: Pouch P32L SSE of CV Islands - 10%
If it develops way out there then it's almost certainly destined for a recurve well east of the Caribbean. Not much heat content there.
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tolakram
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Re: Pouch P32L SSE of CV Islands - 10%
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M a r k
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.