September Hurricane Potential Dates

[FireRat]

Certainly was a close call for Mexico with the explosive Hurricane Hilary in the EPAC, making it from TS to Cat 4 just far enough offshore to not affect Mexico directly today, September 22. This storm might warrant attention for 9/26 and 9/27 if it were to recurve back to Mexico and probably make a hard hit.

Meanwhile the Atlantic remains lackluster (thankfully), that basin just doesn't have what it takes for big storms this month and perhaps next as well. I can't call today's hurricane Hilary a hit since it didn't strike land on the 22nd, but I do believe the RI it went through may have had something to do with this day's "potential". I've seen many previous hurricanes go through incredible RI's during "potential dates", including names like Wilma, Felix, Katrina, Rita, Ivan and many other historic storms like "Labor day". Again everyone, this is my personal take on the storms and predictions, so for sound meteorological data and forecasts refer to the NHC.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[FireRat]

Updating this thread:

Extremely dangerous situation is likely in the Philippines with strengthening tropical storm NESAT as it's poised to strike on September 27. I'm afraid a disaster is in the making considering this is the most risky time period this month and the fact that the intensity models and track are honing on Luzon as a major typhoon, quite a scary scenario IMHO. If you're in the northern Philippines please heed the warnings strongly. Using my method, I can see this storm is predicted to strike on what I determined to be the worst date this month.
If for some reason the storm misses hitting the area on the 27th and delays until the 28th-29th, things may fare much better.
As always, this is just a personal post, so for decision making choices, please refer to the JTWC or other typhoon weather authority. Also check the Nesat thread for continuous meteorological info provided by our S2K members.

Hope for the best.

-FireRat

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[FireRat]

Here's the troubling typhoon. It's heading for the Philippines to landfall and heavily impact the Philippines some 18-24 hours from now.

[FireRat]

Ouch.....



Impressive typhoon Nesat makes landfall as a strengthening typhoon. Pray the situation does not mimic 2009 Typhoon Ketsana's or worse. I hope those of you in the Luzon area and points near the landfall site in the Philippines made it through safely.

Best of luck,

FireRat.

[FireRat]

It will be interesting to see if Nesat becomes a major issue for China or Vietnam or not. I don't see the same occurring as what happened in the Philippines because the next projected landfall dates for Nesat (9/29 and right around) do not have a "disaster risk potential" based on my method. I am hopeful that either the storm will fail to regenerate into a strong typhoon as it makes its next landfall...or that even if it gets strong, that it will somehow miss populated areas and the impacts will be kept to a minimum. If for some reason it were to drastically slow down and be affecting land by October 3-4 then things might be different.....but then again that's nearly impossible.

Just wanted to share this thought on here, and as always this is just my personal opinion.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.