Upcoming week - October 3-9

[Andrew92]

Evaluating last week

Ugh, last week was a disaster. About the only things I got right were Ophelia re-generating, its location near Newfoundland at the end of the week, and no new storms forming. Other than that, the timing of the re-generation and the location were way off, and Ophelia got significantly stronger than expected. Of course, I probably would have never predicted her to become a C4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph, but a weak to moderate tropical storm is absolutely no comparison to reality. I also incorrectly predicted a continued re-curve to the north for Philippe, when he decided to turn left instead. He also failed to become a hurricane during the weekend, but hasn’t fizzled yet either like I predicted. You do the math… this week was completely blown, and I am definitely eating an F grade for it.

Can’t get worse I guess. And if there’s a silver lining to this disastrous week for me, at least land effects were minimal (VERY happy here). Let’s just move on to a new week, shall we?

Current situation and models

Ophelia is still a hurricane but weakening very quickly as it nears Newfoundland. She will probably make landfall tomorrow as a tropical storm and then quickly become extratropical. Nobody is challenging that part of this week’s prediction, so confidence here should be pretty high.

Looking at Philippe, this one is tricky. This storm has easily become the “most annoying” storm of 2011, not really doing anything other than driving hurricane trackers crazy by staying weak but not dying. It probably won’t die out very quickly either, even in the face of some strong shear it is undergoing thanks to Ophelia. On top of it, Philippe is a fighter, and these tenacious storms always have a knack for pulling fast ones. Well, at least the track is pretty simple. Philippe will continue to move west for a couple days and then start to re-curve north and northeast, never threatening land. But intensity will be difficult, with shear forecast to weaken in about two to three days, and then strengthen again. The GFDL also makes Philippe a hurricane, while the Euro dissipates it. Talk about a difficult intensity forecast!

Elsewhere, there are more and more signs that the Caribbean may be about to get primed for some sort of development soon. A favorable MJO is supposed to start reaching this area during the weekend or so and models are really sniffing out something to form soon. However, the models aren’t yet developing anything for this upcoming week. Elsewhere, nothing seems imminent this upcoming week.

Recent history

Since 1960, the following storms have been in a position close to Philippe’s:

Gloria in 1976
Ernesto in 1982
Josephine in 1990
Noel in 1995
Fabian in 1997
Lisa in 1998
Kyle in 2002
Kate in 2003
Otto in 2010

Of these nine storms, seven were hurricanes at some point; however, only Kate became at least a C3 hurricane. All of these storms also either were already in the process of re-curving, or would eventually at some point. The only one to reach land was erratic Kyle, which actually made it all the way to the East Coast. Also interesting is that the only two storms that did not reach hurricane strength, Ernesto and Fabian, occurred in El Nino years. 2011 is not an El Nino year as we know. Kyle also didn’t strengthen anymore from this similar position, though he had been a hurricane prior. 2002 was also an El Nino year.

Also, the following storms have developed in the Caribbean since 1960:

Isbell in 1964 (depression stage only)
Isabel in 1985
Floyd in 1987 (depression stage only)
Roxanne in 1995
Iris in 2001

That’s a bit of a surprise! Only five storms developed this upcoming week, with two of them really just in their formative stages. However, only Isabel failed to become a hurricane, more or less because she quickly re-curved out of the Caribbean into the open Atlantic and a less favorable environment for that kind of strengthening. Still, five storms in the last 50 years, that averages to about one every ten years. But it’s been ten years since Iris…

So what does this all tell us?

Philippe is extremely likely to be a fish storm. The intensity is tricky with the shear he is undergoing, but storms in this area still seem to have a knack for finding a way to intensify, particularly if it’s not an El Nino year. With 2011 not being an El Nino year, we can’t yet disqualify Philippe as not being able to become a hurricane. He is also about at that zone where storms this year all of a sudden just decide to start ramping up. Katia, Maria, and particularly Ophelia have all done so in this area this year, and it shouldn’t surprise any if Philippe does the same. Of course, the Euro dissipates Philippe. Then again, another possibility is for that initial dissipation, following by a strong re-generation, ala Ophelia (though highly unlikely to get quite that strong with the kind of shear that is coming). Or he could intensify first, and then the shear dissipates him. I’m more than kind of glad this is a fish storm, because there are so many possibilities! Did I mention this is the “most annoying” storm of 2011 yet?

The Caribbean may indeed be getting ready, but it’s not there yet. I suppose there’s a small chance of a depression developing by Sunday or so, but a later date into next week seems more likely at this point. It would probably happen in the western part, but even further east storms like Isabel in 1985 (not the famous one) and Iris have formed.

The Prediction

First, let’s just knock out Ophelia. I predict Ophelia to weaken to a tropical storm as she reaches southeastern Newfoundland, clipping the coast with winds as high as 60-65 mph. She will then become extratropical heading out to sea rapidly. Confidence is 90%.

Philippe is a hair-puller to be sure, but at least we know he’s a fish. It’s the intensity that will be very hard to pin down. Still, history likes his chances of finding a way to become a hurricane, even if only briefly, before that second round of shear arrives. Plus, past storms that have fought and hung on have done amazing things, just look at Ophelia. I predict Philippe will hold its own with winds of 45-50 mph while heading west until Tuesday. Beginning Tuesday, a northward turn will commence, shear will decrease, and Philippe will take full advantage of this more favorable environment. By Wednesday night, Philippe will briefly become a minimal hurricane with maximum winds of 75-80 mph while turning northeast. But on Thursday, the shear will quickly tear Philippe apart, weakening him to a tropical storm by the afternoon, and a depression on Friday morning. Philippe will dissipate Friday afternoon or evening to the shear while continuing faster to the northeast. Confidence for the track is 85%. Confidence for the intensity if 50%.

The Caribbean is getting interesting indeed, but I’ve said it probably isn’t ready yet; hence the following prediction. I predict no tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean this upcoming week. Confidence is 75%.

Elsewhere, I predict no tropical cyclone activity this upcoming week. Confidence is 85%.

-Andrew92

P.S. Next week will be a difficult time for me to post a weekly prediction. I will be on a camping trip in Utah at the time and there are no guarantees that I will have an Internet connection. I will try my best to get one in, but if not I apologize in advance. I will still do a full evaluation of this upcoming week whenever I get the chance, even if I cannot give a prediction for October 10-16. If I was betting now, I would call for Rina to form in the Caribbean sometime that week, but the track and intensity are too far away to know for sure.

[Andrew92]

Well let's evaluate, and yes I was able to get on the net!

Overall, last week was centered on Philippe alone. I was pretty confident in the track, but less confident in the intensity when looking at this storm. All in all, this storm was well-behaved on track, but slow to intensify at first and then sluggish to weaken later. The northward turn also came a day later than I anticipated, happening on Wednesday instead of Tuesday. I didn't really go into the track from there but I was thinking a northeastward track from there, which did happen. As for the intensity, Philippe became a hurricane on Thursday morning, not Wednesday like I said. That bout of hurricane intensity lasted as long as I thought, about 24 hours, and then he weakened to a tropical storm on Friday....but I predicted it for Thursday night. The shear also didn't weaken him to a depression, though Philippe did become extratropical on Saturday night, also 24 hours late.

Really, when looking at it, I was about 24 hours late on all fronts with this one. However, I did at least see most of what happened with Philippe coming. I was also correct in not predicting any other storms this past week. Not a bad week overall, so I give myself a B for this past week.

New week coming up momentarily.

-Andrew92