The Calm Before the Storm - Reports from SW Mexican coast

[UNlimitedMind]

Hello All:

I am a new member, UNlimitedMind and I am currently at home with my family in Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco Mexico. I have been following the weather since my early teens after I started bodyboarding 38 years ago. I have experienced some pretty extreme weather in my life from intense snow storms, deluges of rain, squalls, split pea soup fog that you couldn't see your hand held out in front of you. I have bodyboarded 12-15 foot waves (as measured from the crest to ocean level behind the wave) with 24-30' faces.

I have to say that I am probably a bit more anxious tonight then I remember being in any of the other situations concerning weather that I have been in previously. Hurricane Jova is currently bearing down on the Mexican coastline approx. 80-100 miles South and is expected to head North after making landfall. They say that the track could very well shift more to the West. This will bring what is being predicted as a Tropical Storm almost directly overhead to us here in Puerto Vallarta (if the storm track is accurate)! My family and I are well supplied to be bunkered down for up to 5 days without water or electricity. Most people here do not appear to be taking the warnings or the Hurricane seriously. I have been laughed at and made a joke of for suggesting that people prepare for the worst even though there was a chance (and still is a chance) that it wont be to bad. Fortunately, tropical depression Irwin appears to be shifting to the South East.

I just went to the NHC website and the NHC gives a 70% probability that we can have tropical storm force winds following Jova, from Irwin!

What makes this different from my earlier "adventures" in adverse weather situations is that I have a family now and their safety is my #1 concern! Anyway, According to the NHC we should have tropical storm force winds by morning and they are estimating 6-12" of rain with "isolated maximum amounts" of up to 20".

Any way, I am going to try to get some sleep. I do not know if I have another chance over the next several days! I hope this is an appropriate post. Most of what I have read is much more technical and related to the storm specifics being discussed and not of personal experiences. If appropriate I will return with updates if our electricity is working. Our electrical lines and infrastructure in the Colony in which I live is shaky at best! I am expecting to be without electricity for the next several days (I hope I am wrong). If we don't have electricity, I will post again after the storm.

One last thing. The saying, "the calm before the storm" is very true. It is as calm as can be outside! No air movement at all. Very, very still.

Take care All!!!

Put as sticky by cycloneye

[storm4u]

stay safe and goodluck!

[angelwing]

Welcome to the board and stay safe!

[brunota2003]

Usually we'll have a thread dedicated to observations/reports from the areas impacted, and as a way for members in the areas to share what they are doing to get ready/check in after the storm is over...not sure why one has not been created for Jova yet, though. I can attest that there is definitely a "calm before the storm", as the same thing happened in NC the night before Isabel came ashore. There was no wind whatsoever, was quiet and calm as can be. Good luck!

[cycloneye]

I put a sticky to the thread as we may recieve reports from that area.

[cycloneye]

Web Cam from Puerto Vallarta.

http://www.puertovallarta.net/interacti ... webcam.php

[cycloneye]

Discussion of effects in Puerto Vallarta by Dr Jeff Masters:

The shape of the coast near Puerto Vallarta makes it difficult for a high storm surge to affect that city. Jova is passing far enough to the east of Puerto Vallarta that the winds in the Bay should be capable of elevating a surge to a height of just 1 - 2 feet above normal water levels, with perhaps a slight chance of a surge as high as 3 feet affecting the city. However, there will be high battering waves on top of the storm surge, and these waves may cause damage to ocean front property. I was in Puerto Vallarta during Hurricane Paine of 1986, and while we didn't see much of a storm surge, the coast experienced 10-foot waves that tore apart the sea wall protecting the swimming pool of the hotel I was staying at. The highest storm tide from Jova should occur near 9:55am CDT Wednesday morning, which is the time of high tide. Jova will be at its closest to Puerto Vallarta then, and is likely to be a strong tropical storm with 60 mph winds.

Jeff Masters

[cycloneye]

Jova claims 6 lives. See information at link translated to english.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 66198.html