SW Caribbean Tropical Development? (Is invest 96L)

[wzrgirl1]

Hopefully this will steer away from our region. We have been inundated with rain for three days straight on top of what we had the previous weekend. We need a break.

[Tampa_God]

Hopefully this will steer away from our region. We have been inundated with rain for three days straight on top of what we had the previous weekend. We need a break.

Speak for yourself. Central Fl. got barely anything from either systems, especially the west side of Tampa Bay.

[Macrocane]

Hopefully this will steer away from our region. We have been inundated with rain for three days straight on top of what we had the previous weekend. We need a break.

Same for Central America, we were inundated with rain for 10 days, 60 inches in parts of El Salvador. The best it can do is to dissipate unfortunately the models are not doing that.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Hopefully this will steer away from our region. We have been inundated with rain for three days straight on top of what we had the previous weekend. We need a break.

No we don't. We need 23 more inches to get to the "normal" for the year and rainy season is just about over. The lake is 3 feet below where it should be. Still in a drought....

I for one (admitted weenie) am hoping it makes a show, or at least the rain does. While the freak ef2 twister over Sunrise wasn't welcome, it really was the best kind of rain we could get.

As for the system in question, I think there is a slim chance of something spinning up but that high over the plains is not looking good for any northerly movement.

[cycloneye]

00z surface analysis.

[Rgv20]

Went over the steering forecast charts and the only way it goes NE is if it becomes a deep system as the middle and shallow layer steering would suggest a West to SW track.

12z Forecast Steering Chart Valid for Monday morning. It forecast for the Middle and Shallow steering winds to be North to NE (meaning a SW motion) which if this stays weak enough it would be buried into CA. Now if this think bombs out in the Western Caribbean, Cuba and/or South Florida could be a likely destination.

[MGC]

!8Z GFS developes a second TC south of PR after the 1st TC moves in CA.....and I'm headed to South Florida tomorrow for a week.....MGC

[cycloneye]

Euro is on board now.

[wzrgirl1]

Hopefully this will steer away from our region. We have been inundated with rain for three days straight on top of what we had the previous weekend. We need a break.

Speak for yourself. Central Fl. got barely anything from either systems, especially the west side of Tampa Bay.

I am speaking for myself. South Florida is what I was referring to.

[wzrgirl1]

Hopefully this will steer away from our region. We have been inundated with rain for three days straight on top of what we had the previous weekend. We need a break.

No we don't. We need 23 more inches to get to the "normal" for the year and rainy season is just about over. The lake is 3 feet below where it should be. Still in a drought....

I for one (admitted weenie) am hoping it makes a show, or at least the rain does. While the freak ef2 twister over Sunrise wasn't welcome, it really was the best kind of rain we could get.

As for the system in question, I think there is a slim chance of something spinning up but that high over the plains is not looking good for any northerly movement.

I personally love when it rains but I know where I live the water is still puddled in some areas in southwest Broward, I fear if we get more rain it could flood in some areas. I know the lake is still below normal however if it could rain there it would be nice.

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion by Rob of Crown Weather

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[DESTRUCTION5]

Euro jumps on board with a Med-strong Tropical storm crossing SFL in less than week time frame...I say that should draw some interest...Lets see some run to run continuity..

[xironman]

The IR2 seems show some pretty good spin @79.5 - 14 this morning, just east of the convection.

Saved Euro run

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

SW Caribbean area has been tagged as invest 96L. Go to active storms.invests forum to continue the discussions about this area of interest.

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