Hey fellas, I decided to look into the month of October in the same manner as I did with September and have put together this thread for everyone interested to see. I find this month may be more favorable for tropical cyclones and hurricanes around the globe. September's events were mainly restricted to earthquake events and has had little in the way of tropical cyclones with perhaps TS Lee, Typhoon Roke and EPAC Hilary being the only game in town so far up to this 23rd day of September. I believe this may have been the case because most of September's risk dates were "lone dates", a type of risk period consisting of a single date making it a likely candidate for sudden events....like earthquakes. October looks about normal for natural disaster activity based on my method, BUT could feature more in the way of hurricanes and typhoons than September did as the patterns in the dates this month point more toward storm events instead of quakes and other non-tropical related natural disasters. The risk dates in October are more grouped up, rather than "lone", and could favor more long-duration events like hurricanes and typhoons. The good news is that I don't see the month reaching "violent" levels and may be one of more "moderate severity events". Again, what I'm doing is completely different than what meteorologists do and what I will try to do is pin-point the dates of the month most likely to bring a tropical cyclone event or most importantly....an impact. Keep in mind that other types of natural disasters such as earthquakes and landslides could strike parts of the world on the same potential TC dates I'm about to give in this continuing "test post".
Well, here goes my shot at the upcoming month:
October 3-4: This is the first time frame of the month that could feature a tropical cyclone, with perhaps and impact land on October 4th. My best guess would be a typhoon but we still can't give up on the ole' Atlantic....meaning the Caribbean might be a place we'll be watching then. October 4 is the stronger date of the two, and this could be the impact date.
October 7-9: Another good time period for a tropical cyclone, this is the second potential follow-up period from the October 3-4 time frame. If nothing develops on October 3-4, this would be the likeliest time frame for a significant tropical cyclone during the first half of October.
October 12: This might be more of an earthquake-type date, perhaps there'll be one between magnitude 6 and 7 then. The areas most likely to see this would be the most earthquake-prone areas such as Indonesia or Japan.
October 16-17: This two day period could feature a TC as well, with the 16th being a probable impact date. A quake could also occur on the 16th.
October 21-28: Big and long stretch of risk dates which could feature a significant TC, perhaps the most significant of all October. I believe this will most likely be a typhoon. The Atlantic would be second-pick as sometimes we do see big storms in the Caribbean during La Nina Fall Seasons. This long stretch of dates could also mean flooding events.The 25th, 26th and 27th of October are the most significant dates of this bunch
*The good news is that this month's risk dates are what I consider moderate-medium high and not exceptionally high, this would mean the month will most likely bring moderate severity events, rather than something really bad. I believe TWO of these time frames will fulfill themselves and that, GLOBALLY, we'll see an upsurge in Tropical Cyclone activity compared to September.
The dates are "color coded" and the ones colored with the "hottest" colors are the ones I believe will be more significant. If you have any questions, feel free to ask me. Again, my posts are mainly experimental and are intended to just give extra insight into the extreme-long range. Should any models pick up on activity or landfalls during the above mentioned dates, my advice would be to watch them more closely. Thanks for reading, the disclaimer will appear at the very bottom of this thread.
best wishes,
FireRat.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
That's pretty funny. Will you be handing out candy? 
