Is the multi-decadal enhanced activity since 1995 waning?

[cycloneye]

As we know,since 1995,the North Atlantic basin has been thru an enhancement of tropical activity that of course included the extremely active 2005 season,but if this discussion by NCEP (experimental GFDL) is correct,things in the basin would turn less active like it was during various periods before the 1995 and beyond higher activity. Searching the internet,I found this very interesting discussion. Certainly,we have seen less hurricanes in general and that can lead to a good discussion about this.

If this 2012 forecast verifies and the 2011 season closes at the current 6 hurricanes, the
seven- year averaged hurricane count centered on 2009 will be below 7 hurricanes (6.5)
for the first time since that centered on 1996, giving hints that the multi-decadal period of
enhanced Atlantic activity that has dominated the Atlantic since the mid-1990s may have
begun to wane in the late 2000s.

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem ... r-2011.pdf

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/HyHuFS

[gigabite]

With the enhanced ability of satellites, and as image processing evolves it will be increasingly more difficult to correlate climatologically cycles without handicapping the historical data.

[HurricaneBill]

On a related note, does the WPAC also have cycles?

[jinftl]

Central premise from the article suggesting the idea of basin activity waning....if we only have 6 hurricanes in 2011....is now moot - Nate was determined to be a hurricane in post-season analysis, so that brings the total # of hurricanes in 2011 to 7.:

Irene
Katia
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Phillipe
Rina

Link to NHC 2011 Reports that reclassifies Nate as a hurricane: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2011atlan.shtml

If this 2012 forecast verifies and the 2011 season closes at the current 6 hurricanes, the
seven- year averaged hurricane count centered on 2009 will be below 7 hurricanes (6.5)
for the first time since that centered on 1996, giving hints that the multi-decadal period of
enhanced Atlantic activity that has dominated the Atlantic since the mid-1990s may have
begun to wane in the late 2000s.

[MGC]

We sure did have a lot of named systems again this season....we are lucky again here in the USA that only one hurricane hit NC. Lots of shear and dry air held back many of these systems...had the basin been a little more moist and less shear there would have been a few more hurricanes and perhaps a couple more majors. And looking towards next season, the AMO will still be warm phase and neutral conditions look to be in place at least in the beginning of the season so might get another bumper crop of TC....MGC