New storm in 2011 reanalysis? Is this article accurate?

[Hurricanehink]

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=234120806653407&set=a.126275484104607.22530.112957945436361&type=1

NHC confirmed on Facebook that the TCR will be out for the September system before the end of the month. They also commented on the October Florida system.

[Ptarmigan]

2011 may have 19 named storms, which is active. Now let's look at the hurricanes and major hurricanes. This is from 1870 to 2010.
Total Number
Mean = 9 (9.3)
Median = 9
Std Dev. = 4.0 (4.02)

Hurricane
Mean = 5 (5.4)
Median = 5
Std Dev. = 3.0 (2.61)

Major Hurricane
Mean = 2 (2.2)
Median = 2
Std Dev. = 2.0 (1.75)

Hurricane Percent
Mean = 59%
Median = 58%
Std Dev. = 17%

Major Hurricane Percent
Mean = 21%
Median = 20%
Std Dev. = 15%

ACE
Mean = 91.4
Median = 81
Std Dev. = 54.3

ACE/Storm
Mean = 9.8
Median = 9.1
Std Dev. = 4.2


2011
Total Number
19 Storms Above Average
7 Hurricanes Within Average
3 Major Hurricanes Within Average

Percentage
Hurricane 36.8% Below Average
Major Hurricane 15.8% Within Average

ACE
119 Within Average

ACE/Storm
6.3/Storm Within Average

[CrazyC83]

The numbers kinda remind me of 2003 (16/7/3 with 5 depressions).

[Ptarmigan]

The numbers kinda remind me of 2003 (16/7/3 with 5 depressions).

2003 Statistics
Total Number
16 Storms Above Average
7 Hurricanes Within Average
3 Major Hurricanes Within Average

Percentage
Hurricane 44% Within Average
Major Hurricane 19% Within Average

ACE
175 Above Average

ACE/Storm
10.9/Storm Within Average

[CrazyC83]

If 2003 and 2011 are comparable seasons, hopefully 2012 and 2013 aren't like 2004 and 2005!

[Ptarmigan]

If 2003 and 2011 are comparable seasons, hopefully 2012 and 2013 aren't like 2004 and 2005!

Let's hope not. If 2012 and 2013 was active like 2004 and 2005, it would be four years of active season back to back!

Hurricane Become Major Hurricane Percent
Mean = 36%
Median = 33%
Std Dev. = 24%

2003
Hurricane To Major Hurricane 43% Within Average

2011
Hurricane To Major Hurricane 43% Within Average


2004 Statistics
Total Number
15 Storms Above Average
9 Hurricanes Above Average
6 Major Hurricanes Above Average

Percentage
Hurricane 60% Within Average
Major Hurricane 40% Above Average
Hurricane To Major Hurricane 67% Above Average

ACE
224 Above Average

ACE/Storm
14.9/Storm Above Average


2005 Statistics
Total Number
28 Storms Above Average
15 Hurricanes Above Average
7 Major Hurricanes Above Average

Percentage
Hurricane 54% Within Average
Major Hurricane 25% Within Average
Hurricane To Major Hurricane 47% Within Average

ACE
248 Above Average

ACE/Storm
8.9/Storm Within Average

[bg1]

2005 Statistics


ACE
248 Within Average

[Hurricane Jed]

If 2003 and 2011 are comparable seasons, hopefully 2012 and 2013 aren't like 2004 and 2005!

2012 gives us list 4 which has a habit of falling during El Nino years. i.e. 1982, 1994, 2006. So my fingers are crossed for inactivity.

[bg1]

If 2003 and 2011 are comparable seasons, hopefully 2012 and 2013 aren't like 2004 and 2005!

2012 gives us list 4 which has a habit of falling during El Nino years. i.e. 1982, 1994, 2006. So my fingers are crossed for inactivity.

Unfortunately, not next year's list. At the peak of next year, we will likely be at neutral coming off this latest La Nina.

[Ptarmigan]

2005 Statistics


ACE
248 Within Average

Error fixed.