Can someone explain

[SacrydDreamz]

Why the NHC forecasts weakening beyond 36 hrs.? What type of sheer environment is being forecast, and if the sheer doesn't materialize as advertised will it have an impact on the track of Fabian? Stronger storms are harder to steer..

[hurricanedude]

not so much sheer, Its the fact if the storm heads more north it will encounter cooler water in time

[Stormsfury]

Not so much shear, Sacred, but eyewall replacement cycles and inner core changes...such a storm this strong generally cannot maintain this strength for long periods of time and will undergo replacement cycles.

SF

[wxman57]

It's not the cooler water - water is plenty warm ahead of Fabian. You have to understand that hurricanes are VERY delicate structures. It takes almost perfect environmental conditions to make a storm like Fabian. Just the slightest disruption in this perfect environment can lead to rapid weakening. And these perfect conditions just don't hang around for long many times, parcitularly when a storm begins recurving and moves out of the deep tropics. The NHC thinking is that a very slight wind shear in Fabian's path may slightly disrupt its outflow. That would be enough to weaken it.

[WXBUFFJIM]

a trough moving towards the east coast could disrupt the outflow on this hurricane on the south and southwest side of the hurricane. That alone will result in weakening at or near the east coast on Saturday even though this remains a 105 mph hurricane near the same latitude as Cape May, New Jersey. That's still one heck of a hurricane ladies and gentlemen. I don't know if anyone could live through a 145-150 mph hurricane let alone 105 mph.

But in all seriousness, anyone venturing to the east coast this weekend, watch out for beach erosion, dangerous large battering waves/surf and dangerous and deadly rip currents. Novice swimmers I would advise to stay out of the water this weekend, I'll say that right now!!!

Jim

[Stormsfury]

not so much sheer, Its the fact if the storm heads more north it will encounter cooler water in time

SST's won't be a problem.

[DJJordan]

Think about it this way....You have a full tub of water draining in your bathtub....If the water is still enough you have a Funnel of Water from the Drain up to the Surface spinning perfectly......Disrupt that water and the Funnel goes away.....

[SacrydDreamz]

Think about it this way....You have a full tub of water draining in your bathtub....If the water is still enough you have a Funnel of Water from the Drain up to the Surface spinning perfectly......Disrupt that water and the Funnel goes away.....

The funnel changes, but doesn't go away! I want to know where they are expecting the sheer and why! In understand that hurricanes of such strength are delicate, but often times intense hurricanes are able to hold their own for a while in slightly unfavorable environments. Granted sheer will still weaken a system, but so rapidly? How strong is the sheer forecasted?