Fabian and the caribbean/GOM wave

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good morning. Hurricane Fabian weakens only a tad this morning. At 5 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Fabian was located near latitude 19.8 north, longitude 59.7 west or about 195 miles northeast of Barbuda in the northern Leeward Islands.

Fabian is moving towards the wnw at 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24-36 hours. On this track, the center of Fabian will pass north of the northern Lesser Antillies. However huge sweels will generate big waves, and dangerous and deadly rip currents in Puerto Rico, St Croix, The US and British Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antillies, especially on the north facins shores.

Maximum sustained winds are now 140 mph with higher gusts. Fluctuations in intensity normally occurs with major hurricanes and Fabian is no different for the next 24 hour or so.

Minimum central pressure is now 945 mb or 27.91 inches as measured by the hurricane hunters earlier this morning.

The projected path remains the same by gradually turning Fabian to the northwest, then eventually towards the north and out over the North Atlantic. But the bigger question is not will it turn because it's obvious Fabian will turn the corner and head through the North Atlantic early next week. It's when will Fabian turn?? That makes the projected path go one way or another, which is either a good thing or a bad thing. The good thing is, the sooner this hurricane turns to the northwest then north, the better off the east coast will be because we'll be just talking about a fish storm. However there is still potential very bad news if Fabian turns either more gradually northwest or north or turns much later than anticipated. The longer it takes for this thing to turn northwest and then northward, the greater the threat of a landfalling major hurricane on the eastern United States. I suggest keeping a very close eye on things from Cape Hatteras and Virginia Beach northward into New England where the potential does exist of a landfalling hurricane if Fabian turns northwest and north later than anticipated. But the best estimate would be to take the center between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda in about 96 hours or so. However we're still 4-5 days away from direct or indirect impact on the eastern United States. So it's important to monitor this one carefully just in case!!!

The wave in the northwest Caribbean yesterday is falling apart still this morning as it passes over the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf Of Mexico. The overall steering flow will take this system north into the Florida Panhandle area sometime on Wednesday. Only a slight chance exists of this developing into anything tropical in nature. However tropical moisture with heavy rains will be likely over the sunshine state for the nxt couple of days or so.

Stay tuned!!!
Jim

[wx247]

Good discussion Jim! Thanks for the update.

[Steve H.]

I think the area will develop in the GOM jiust north of the Yucatan. Convection is building and some turning is noted in the cloud field. Convection is building near the SE Yucatan and this will increase today. Think this area will move from the Central GOM toward western Florida over the next few days, then up the east coast. Cheers!!

[Rainband]

Yes..after voting no recon..I looked at the satellite again..there is a flair-up down there that needs to be watched!!

[rainstorm]

very good

[JCT777]

Good update, Jim. Looks like Fabian has now taken the turn toward the NW.