7:30AM Tropical update for Monday, September 2, 2003

[vbhoutex]

The 7:30am CDT Storm2k tropical update can be found at http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

In the Atlantic Hurricane Fabian continues moving WNW as a major CAT 4 hurricane with winds of 140mph and gusts to 170 mph. Will he become a threat to the US? We are also watching an area of disturbed weather in the NW Caribbean expected to move into the SE GOM. Check it all out at the above link.

[rainstorm]

2 waves way out in the atlantic, but will they be threats?

[Steve H.]

Don't know RS (Helen), but models are all over at least one. This is developing at a relatively low latitude. One model (can't remember) seems to have a duel low (hate those) but at low latitude so if it remains confused long enuf could enter the eastern Caribbean. The others develop it TOO soon, which will make it difficult for it to make the trip. Big question is....after the longwave trough pulls out, will we return to a strong ridge for a while? The trick for getting these lows across the pond is to have a fast runner (spring board off Africa) or relatively weak low latitude system with timing to catch a building ridge in the SW Atlantic. Otherwise the things go fish. Right now the NW Caribbean has my attention, since conditions should be ideal (200 mb anticyclone) in the SE GOM for development, but the window might close by Thursday. That's where the action might be now. BTW, are we going to close the CV early this year? Cheers!!