Fabian at 5 PM, coastal flood watch and advice for swimmers.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good afternoon folks. At 5 PM EDT, Powerful Hurricane Fabian continues to bypass the Leeward Islands.

At 5 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Fabian was located near latitude 20.7 north, longitude 61.1 west or about 210 miles north northeast of Burbuda in the northern Leeward Islands.

Fabian is moving towards the west northwest at around 10 mph. A turn to the northwest is expected in the next 24 hours. Fabian is currently at it's closest approach to the Leeward Islands, St Croix, The Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. However with a hurricane this strong and powerful at cat 4 status, huge waves breaking at 10-15 feet will lead to #1 dangerous rip currents, #2 very high and dangerous surf, #3 potential beach erosion, which could lead to coastal flooding at times of high tide. Thus a coastal flood watch is in effect as well as a heavy surf advisory from Puerto Rico eastward to the northern Lesser Antillies.

Maximum sustained winds are now 140 mph with higher gusts. This makes Fabian a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Fluctations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and such will be the case during the next 24 hours with Fabian.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center from tropical storm force winds extend outward 150 miles. The latest pressure estimated by an air force reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft was 945 millibars or 27.91 inches.

Huge swells along with dangerous and deadly rip currents can be expected from Puerto Rico on east to the northern Leeward Islands. This same area is under a coastal flood watch through tonight. A coastal flood watch means that conditions are favorable for coastal flooding, particularly at times of high tides. Coastal flooding events like this could unindate coastal roads, flood low lying areas, and result in beach erosion as well.

The next high tide for San Juan Harbor is at 1:17 am Wednesday morning.

The next high tide at Magens Bay in St Thomas will be at 4:50 PM Wednesday afternoon.

Local beach goers and swimmers are urged to stay out of the water until these hazardous surf conditions reced some. Parents who have children are urged to keep their children away from large breaking waves and surging ocean water as this could become a deadly mistake. The same basic setup will occur along the eastern seaboard this weekend, especially from South Carolina northward into New England. Any direct effects from Fabian are becoming less likely along the eastern seaboard. Still monitor the situation just in case things change. Otherwise, enjoy the week and the upcoming weekend. Just watch it along the coast as large waves and dangerous rip currents could result in beach erosion and even some minor tidal flooding at times of high tide. That's just from the swells folks!!! If the hurricane of cat 3 or 4 intensity took a direct hit on the east coast near my local area, I wouldn't want to be within 25 miles of the Atlantic coast and I'll say that now!!!

More updates later....

Jim

[JCT777]

Thanks for the update, Jim. Let's continue to watch and be thankful that our areas look to be spared from this storm. The last thing we need is rains from a hurricane, since we have already had too much rain this year.