Gulf of Mexico, area of convection

[tolakram]

Deceiving looking area of convection, in a low shear environment.

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Water temps way above average, but too cold to support tropical IMO.

[cycloneye]

Blob watching already Mark? What is true is that those GOM waters are above average and we can't discount early developments in that area.



Uploaded with imageshack.us

[tolakram]

My place of work blocks imageshack, but not imgur. I was so excited I just had to post something, just for practice.

edit: Oh, and that is along a front, as far as I can tell from the discussion.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ089-302130-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...ATLC RIDGE ALONG 27N WILL EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF THROUGH SAT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF LATE SUN INTO MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF EARLY TUE MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT.

...

[tolakram]

Edit to the above. Not frontal, the front won't arrive till Tuesday, so what is driving the convection? Some sort of upper level disturbance?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42046


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42043



Surface disturbance?

[northjaxpro]

According to NHC Tropical Weather Discussion, that area in the NW GOM is a weak shortwave impulse embedded within the southwesterly upper level wind flow.

It definitely looks interesting, but that area is nothing significant for the time being. However, just the fact that this thread has started a blob watch already at the end of March is interesting in itself for sure.

[wxman57]

There's nothing at the surface now, though I could identify a weak trof along the TX coast this morning. SSTs are in the 23C-24C range beneath the storms. Wind shear is 20-30 kts. Not exactly ideal conditions for any development.

[tolakram]

Thanks for the info. It will be inland soon as well.

Sat is in rapid scan mode now, probably for the possible severe weather this afternoon in the Ohio Valley.

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[somethingfunny]

It really is pretty neat looking, isn't it? It caught the NWS off guard when it formed.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48/60 HOURS HAS TRANSITIONED FROM
BEING RELATIVELY STRAIGHT FORWARD TO COMPLICATED. OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN PROGGING A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TO SLOWLY PROGRESS OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO...NORTHWARD INTO OUR
CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD HAVE BROUGHT SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THINGS
WENT A LITTLE DIFFERENT YESTERDAY EVENING. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE
BROUGHT A FAIRLY POTENT MCS TO THE BIG BEND/HILL COUNTRY
YESTERDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN RETURN...THE WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRANSITIONED INTO A CLOSED LOW...OR A VORT LOW...MOST LIKELY DUE
TO THE EFFECT OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE. WE HAVE SAID THIS SEVERAL
TIMES THIS YEAR...BUT THIS WAS ATYPICAL FOR MARCH AND MORE LIKE A
MAY/JUNE EVENT. NEVERTHELESS...THIS PROCESS HAS THROWN A KINK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LUCKILY...THIS LOW
DEEPENED OVER DEL RIO AND WAS SAMPLED FAIRLY WELL BY THE 12Z
SOUNDING AT KDRT AND INGESTED IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE. ALL MEMBERS
SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZE THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL AND TRACK IT
SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INSTEAD OF A SLOWLY
NORTHWARD MOVING DISTURBANCE THAT INITIATES CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS...WE NOW HAVE A MUCH STRONGER
CIRCULATION THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST AND WILL ONLY BRING WEAK
LIFT TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AND WILL LINGER 20 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH
TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LOW.

THERE IS ANOTHER SUBTLE DISTURBANCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IN NORTHERN MEXICO MOVING IN THE SAME TRACK AS OUR PREVIOUS
DISTURBANCE. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL REMAIN
WEAK AND MAINLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE ANOTHER EPISODE WITH PERSISTENT AND
DEEP CONVECTION LEADING TO AN INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SAW IT WITH LAST NIGHTS EVENT.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ACTIVITY.

.......

85/NH

&&

Is it going to turn tropical and warm-core? Probably not, but it has happened with these kinds of systems before. Not in March, but as pretty much every meteorologist has mentioned at some point this month.... the pattern right now is more typical of May or June than of March. Ya never know with weather.

[Ptarmigan]

There have been records of tropical cyclones hitting Texas in April, one in 1554 which hit Brownsville.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

[KatDaddy]

Must say it does look rather interesting regardless. Not expecting any development.

[MGC]

Glad its not June.....MGC

[NDG]

Impressive as many have mentioned.

[Hurricane Jed]

Certainly looks subtropical at least.

[Hurricaneman]

We should not be seeing things like this before May. Does anyone get the feeling there will be a pre-season storm this year from something similar

[northjaxpro]

This has been an impressive Mesoscale Convective Vortex. This feature originated from across South Central Texas and has steadily moved east-northeast for the past 36 hours. This MCV has remained intact quite well tracking along the Northern Gulf coastal region. Radar and satellite presentation this early morning showed the MCV spinning quite well just offshore of the Mississippi and Alabama coasts moving east. It will move inland across the far western Florida panhandle later today.

It is an interesting feature for sure. There will be some very heavy rains (which are already occuring) across the Florida panhandle, extreme Southern Alabama and portions of the coastal Northern Gulf Coast region as this feature moves east.

[Dean4Storms]

Brought us some good Storms here in Destin this morning.

[NDG]

Our little vorticity just can't quit, C-Man station south of Apalachicola reporting steady winds above 30 knots (anemometer 100' + above water) for the past hour with a nice drop of pressure as the vorticity passed close to it.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, NDG, that MCV was an impressive feature, staying intact on its trek quickly along the entire Gulf Coast, now moving in from Apalachee Bay across the northern Florida peninsula.

Good thing this feature was moving along at a quick pace and also that its the end of March, not May or June. However, we sure are in a pattern that is very May or June like right now, and this may be a harbinger of things to come in the Gulf of Mexico this upcoming season. I am anticipating more in the way of "homebrew tropical systems" with the onset of El-Nino returning.