2011 TCRs

[MGC]

I wonder if the NHC has taken a look at the un-named system that formed off the east coast of Florida in early October. Sure did look like it might be a TC......MGC

[HURAKAN]

I wonder if the NHC has taken a look at the un-named system that formed off the east coast of Florida in early October. Sure did look like it might be a TC......MGC

They comment on this system in fb .. http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid= ... e=1&ref=nf

[Ptarmigan]

Well ther radar image at least looks like a tropical cyclone but in visible and IR Jose was one of the worse looking tropical cyclone I've ever seen.

Jose was one strange storm. How on radar it looks like a tropical cyclone, yet on satellite looks like some thunderstorms. I have seen thunderstorms that looked better than Jose.

[Ptarmigan]

That's a nice surprise, fortunately Central America dodge that bullet. Four major hurricanes doesn't sound like a "boring" season does it?

America was not as lucky as we had Irene and Lee. Four major hurricanes is above average. 1989 had two major hurricanes and that was not a "boring" season.

[CrazyC83]

Last 3 EPAC reports (Fernanda, Jova, Kenneth) are out.

[CrazyC83]

Some changes I would make:

Fernanda - With a nearly closed eye and ADT well above cane with subjective Dvorak split, I would have upped it to hurricane status (65 kt).

Jova - Peak intensity seems right based on Recon. However, the landfall intensity I would knock down to 75 kt (from 85 kt) based on extrapolation of Dvorak after the previous Recon flight which was weaker than Dvorak estimates.

Kenneth - I would have bumped the peak intensity to 130 kt. Dvorak doesn't seem to do that great in smaller storms (underestimates them a bit).

[CrazyC83]

Damage figures for Irene updated: now up to $15.6 billion in the US. Combined with earlier insured estimates for elsewhere on the track, the total damage is likely around $19 billion.

With those kind of numbers, she's pretty much sure to be retired.

[Chacor]

We'll know for sure in a few days — the hurricane committee meeting begins tomorrow and lasts till Sunday.