Fabian a Canadian Threat.

[Stormsfury]

Forecast Discussion regarding Hurricane Fabian
Stormsfury - 8 pm EDT - September 2nd, 2003

Hurricane Fabian. What a storm. Fortunately all the model guidance minus a couple of ensemble members are keeping Fabian well off the Southeast Coast and the EC. Fabian looks to travel right in between the EC and Bermuda with some potential for Bermuda to feel some effects. The eye today of Fabian became larger than it was yesterday by some 10 NM and there's some hint that Fabian completed yet another eyewall cycle. Fabian continues to journey WNW at 10 mph and the SST's are getting warmer. Fabian should remain a very dangerous Cat 4 hurricane at least through the next couple of days with mostly inner core structure controlling the intensity. There is some possibility that Fabian may strengthen some, but Category 5 status is not likely due to other controlling dynamics. All the model guidance now keeps Fabian east of 70ºW with the Canadian the furthest left and at this time, I discount now that Fabian gets that far west. I'm still not convinced that Fabian gets extremely close to Bermuda but with NOGAPS and UKMET advertising a very close call with Bermuda but I wouldn't let my guard down there at all. In fact, some preparations on Bermuda should be made JUST IN CASE. Right now, my current track forecast takes Fabian slightly left of the NHC guidance still but not as far left as yesterday. Tonight only with Fabian not going past 69ºW. The other problem is the potential for a Canadian Maritimes strike. Several possible scenarios exist with Fabian in regards here. The models are somewhat at odds in the acceleration of Fabian. The GFDL accelerates Fabian around the subtropical ridge and SHARPLY curves Fabian NE missing the Canadian Maritimes. 12z GEM GLB paints a far different story. Direct strike over Nova Scotia/Newfoundland and still further west than NOGAPS, UKMET, the GFS, and today's 12z EURO with a sharper recurvature idea.

My forecast blend is a general consensus of the models, and not as extreme as the 00z Canadian and 12z GEM GLB and keeping Fabian a major hurricane until the storm reaches 37ºN.

12z GEM GLB 09/02/03
http://stormsfury1.com/Temp/GEMGLB12z090203.gif

Projected Track
http://stormsfury1.com/Temp/Fabian.JPG

SF

[Stormsfury]

EURO Day 5 on board with a Newfoundland strike (SE part)

[mahmoo]

I surely don't want to second guess the pros but, I sure hope their models are CLOSE to right.

[vbhoutex]

Great analysis, as usual, Stormsfury!! Indeed it gets much more problematic what Fabian will do after he passes Bermuda.