Storm2k Tropical Weather Outlook
11 PM EDT - September 2nd, 2003
Issued: Stormsfury
Hurricane Fabian is still maintaining Cat. 4 strength but is down to 135 mph at 11 pm tonight...further discussion on Fabian can be found at
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=11707
Elsewhere, a disturbed area in the Western Caribbean/Eastern GOM continues to generate some convection. NHC notes that a potential LLC might be developing around 250 miles west of the Dry Tortugas. An ULL is currently WSW of the suspected LLC in the BOC and a 200mb anticyclone is just about over the system. There is some potential for 95L to develop further in the next couple of days.
The disturbed area of weather 600 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands is accompanied by a 1011 mb low along the wave axis around 14ºN has diminished significantly and the low is weakening. With the strong wave south of the Cape Verde Islands getting on its heels, development with that system is becoming less likely.
The wave 250 miles South of the Cape Verde Islands continued to become better organized and further development of this system is becoming quite likely in the next couple of days.
Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday.
Tropical Weather Discussion
The area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean/Eastern GOM is becoming a little better organized and convection tonight is being enhanced by an ULL in the BOC. There is some model support for future development of 95L. The 00z ETA is hinting at development with 95L as a broad low pressure area ...
In regards to the wave South of the Cape Verde Islands... 100% model support among the Globals ... GFS/ETA/NOGAPS/UKMET/EURO with the Canadian very bullish on development at 00z and 12z. The EUROPEAN model indicates development from the CV wave and at the Day 7 timeframe ... a 995 mb low and 56.4 kt winds (at the 850mb level)...
Day 7 MSLP
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
Day 7 Wind Speed
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
11 PM Tropical Weather Outlook and Discussion
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Stormsfury
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