Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?

[Ptarmigan]

Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2083

Hurricanes with pinhole eyes have stronger winds at the surface than at 10,000 feet. Wilma could of had winds as high as 229 mph! :shock: :o

[northjaxpro]

I have always thought that Wilma probably had pressure readings possibly down into the 877-880 mb range because the cyclone was still in the rapid intensification phase when that last Recon plane had to leave. If it did drop to those levels, I think it is very possible that winds reached the 200 mph + level.

This is a very good read. Wilma was an absolute monster with an unheard of tiny 2 mile wide eye in diameter when it reached maximum intensity. She was about as impressive a tropical cyclone that we can have that's for certain.


Wilma near max intensity Category 5 October 19, 2005

[brunota2003]

Nice read...scary reading the story about the flight crew that penetrated her, though! Started out at 5,000 ft and to keep the constant pressure altitude, the plane descended all the way down to 1,500 ft by the time they reached the eye! That's just one good gust away from touchdown in the ocean! Perhaps we need to up the flights to 10,000 ft in all hurricanes to keep something like this from happening again? Same thing happened in Hugo, Dr. Masters was on that flight.

The date is October 19

[northjaxpro]

I edited that typo. Thanks brunota2003 for alerting me to it.

[hurricanetrack]

Doubt we could get a balloon in to a 2 mile wide eye. Never mind what we went through to get to that part anyway.......Pass.

[brunota2003]

You'd have to have it pre-inflated so you could (literally) run outside and launch it as soon as the wind died down. Just think of how quick Charley was!

No problem, North.

[CrazyC83]

If only there was SFMR on that flight...

The flight-level winds support an intensity of 150 kt, but surely it was stronger than that. 160 kt is the HURDAT intensity, and a case could be made for 165 kt. But any more? That would be in uncharted waters...

[euro6208]

didn't recon find 175 knots (200mph) 1 minute winds in Super Typhoon Megi? Her *official* windspeed in wikipedia is 160 knots, too low...

[MGC]

A few months ago, I had the pleasure to talk with the navigator who was aboard that flight. He said they were not expecting to penetrate a Cat-5 hurricane and the eyewall penetration was very turbulent, one of the most challenging penetrations he had experienced. He also said it was a challenge to keep the C-130 in the eye since it was so small, again something he had never experienced. The NHC need to update its wind profiles in bombing Cat-5 hurricanes. Perhaps the current reduction factor is wrong....MGC

[weatherwindow]

excellent read...the next logical questions are: first, what is the pressure/windspeed threshold below/above which this new relationship applies?...and second, can this relationship be applied with any degree of confidence to all storms above that threshold?...tropical meteorology never fails to fascinate me:).....rich

[CrazyC83]

Since there was no SFMR on that flight, we will never know exactly how strong the winds were. I do agree the 90% rule was probably inappropriate there (168 kt were the highest flight-level winds, which equates to 151 kt at the surface) due to the tiny core and the fact it was bombing beyond comprehension at the time. If the winds were calculated at a 100% reduction factor (which appeared to apply in Felix and several other similar, weaker storms), then the intensity would be 165-170 kt. If a 110% reduction factor was used (which has applied in a few storms), then the intensity would be an absolutely frightening 185 kt.

Look at the stories from the 1935 Labor Day storm. If Wilma was hitting land at that time, I am sure some of those insane recollections would repeat themselves. It would be like sitting under the Joplin tornado for about an hour.

[CrazyC83]

Nice read...scary reading the story about the flight crew that penetrated her, though! Started out at 5,000 ft and to keep the constant pressure altitude, the plane descended all the way down to 1,500 ft by the time they reached the eye! That's just one good gust away from touchdown in the ocean! Perhaps we need to up the flights to 10,000 ft in all hurricanes to keep something like this from happening again? Same thing happened in Hugo, Dr. Masters was on that flight.

The date is October 19

I still wonder why they even tried flying at 5,000 feet. The pressure on the last flight was 954mb, and the storm was clearly in rapid intensification. While I doubt they expected a 901mb pressure and a Cat 5 on first entry, even a major hurricane with a pressure of, say, 935mb is difficult at that level.

[MGC]

They went in at that altitude becase the did not know Wilma had been in RI mode...they thought it had modestly intensified.....this according to the navigator that was on the flight.......MGC

[Cyclenall]

I was flipping through Dr. Jeff Masters' blog and saw this, what a read. The story about recon was very interesting and if I was on that flight, I'd be scared. I can imagine Wilma having surface winds of 170 knots but what really sticks with me is when I heard that the hurricane force winds only extended out to 15 miles, I knew this was something from another planet.

If only there was SFMR on that flight...

The flight-level winds support an intensity of 150 kt, but surely it was stronger than that. 160 kt is the HURDAT intensity, and a case could be made for 165 kt. But any more? That would be in uncharted waters...

The SFMR would probably have gotten messed up anyways in such a core. I like uncharted waters in meteorology .