Tampa Discussion Wet

[Aquawind]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 031911
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
310 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2003

CURRENT/SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF IS DRIFTING NORTH AND CONVECTION FROM THIS IS MOVING INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO POP
UP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.
THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. FOR THE SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF...DIFFERING
MAINLY ON TIMING OF MOVING IT NORTHEAST. TENDING MORE TO THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH IS FASTER IN MOVING IT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND BRING HEAVY RAINS TO WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FLOOD WATCH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OUT WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 5 PM FRIDAY.

EXTENDED (SAT-WED)...SURE LOOKS LIKE A LOW PRESSURE OF SOME SORT
WILL BE MOVING OFF THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE FASTER
GFS HAS IT ALREADY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WHILE THE SLOWER MESOETA
STILL HAS IT MEANDERING IN THE EASTERN GULF WATERS FRIDAY EVENING.
PREVIOUS LONG TERM GRIDS HAVE A PRETTY GOOD COMPROMISE AND MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. BULK OF PRECIPITATION FALLS IN SHORT TERM...BUT
STILL 50 POPS ON SATURDAY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT POPS TO DROP
OFF SUBSTANTIALLY BEYOND SUNDAY...AS TROUGHING MOVES OUT AND STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY...AND BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. TOO EARLY TO BUY OFF ON
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE FA MID WEEK...SO TAPERED TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS FOR NOW.

MARINE...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. KEEPING
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE SINCE I HAVEN'T
SEEN BUOY WINDS INCREASE MUCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. LATER
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO UPDATE THAT TO SCA IF WINDS INCREASE.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TPA 075/086 076/086 7877
FMY 076/086 076/087 7877
GIF 074/088 074/088 5857
SRQ 076/085 077/085 7877
BKV 074/086 074/087 7877

THANKS FOR COORDINATION MLB AND MIA.

.TBW...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ALL ZONES.
...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ALL MARINE ZONES.

JLC/JILLSON

[Rainband]

You beat me to it!!! LOL Welcome to S2K aqua!!!

[Aquawind]

Thanks rainband

[Rainband]

Thanks rainband

I have seen you on the "other" board LOL..I am sooo happy your here!!

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like a wet few days for us

[ameriwx2003]

I do hope the GFS solution pans out. THE ETA solution would really drag he rainy weather out:):)