5 PM ADVISORY on Fabian and TD#12

[WXBUFFJIM]

At 5 PM, Tropical Depression #12 forms in the eastern Gulf Of Mexico. In addition, Hurricane Fabian remains a very dangerous category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale with 120 mph winds.

At 5 PM EDT, the National Hurricane Center has issued tropical warnings for the gulf coast of Florida from Englewood to Indian Pass. A tropical storm warning means that the tropical storm conditions with winds of 39-73 mph are expected within 24 hours or less.

At 5 PM EDT, The center of tropical depression 12 was located near latitude 27.5 north, longitude 87.5 west or about 210 miles southwest of Apalachicola, Florida.

The depression is currently stationary. However a motion towards the northeast and east northeast is expected to begin in the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is likely and TD#12 could become a tropical storm in the next 12-24 hours. The next name on the list is Henri. Minimum central pressure as measured by a hurricane hunter plane was 1013 mb or 29.91 inches.

Heavy rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches is likely across most of Florida over the next day or two. Isolated tornadoes are possible in areas north and east of the circulation. Tornadoes with tropical systems are normally very weak, but can occur particularly in heavier squalls.

Fabian is still a major hurricane at very strng category 3 strength. Indication show further strengthening is possible in the next 12-24 hours in a favorable upper level environment before slow weakening occurs. The Bermuda weather service will likely hoist hurricane watches later tonite or early Thursday since Fabian's track goes towards Bermuda by Friday night or early Saturday morning. The potential for direct impact with the eye is very real over Bermuda and all hurricane precautions should start now in Bermuda well ahead of the storm.

The 5 PM coordinates with Fabian shows the center near latitude 22.9 degrees north, 62.9 degrees west. Movement is towards the northwest at 9 mph. A turn towards the north northwest has been evident on latest satellite images over the past few hours and a turn towards the north is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are now 120 mph with higher gusts. Fabian has an opportunity to strengthen one more time under a very favorable upper air environment and warm sea surface temperatures for the next 24-48 hours and fabian could become a dangerous category 4 hurricane once again on Thursday. After that, weakening is expected to occur and Fabian is expected to become extratropical in the next 96-120 hours.

Minimum central pressure is now down to 944 mb or 27.88 inches. This was a recent pressure reading and usually it's after the pressure lowers that the winds will respond to that lower pressure. So further strengthening is likely later tonite into Thursday as well.

Residents and tourists of Bermuda need to watch this hurricane vigilantly over the next 2-3 days. A direct hit is likely to occur later Friday into arly Saturday morning with 125 mph winds and nearshore waves close to 35 feet. Some models generates offshore waves in the 40-50 foot range offshore from Bermuda and that is indeed a possibility with hurricanes that are this strong and devastating.

More updates on TD#12 and Fabian coming up in a bit. Both are very dangerous entities for different reasons. For Florida, flooding rains alone is a dangerous situation. Bermuda has all of the above and it doesn't look good there. At least the east coast wil be spared a direct hit from Fabian as a trough moves off the northeast and mid atlantic coast. Just dangerous swells, rip currents, and large battering waves are expected along the east coast this weekend. Other than that, we're in good shape.

More updates soon as neccessary.
Jim

[rainstorm]

excellent discussion