Upcoming week - June 11-17

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Evaluating last week

The first full week of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season certainly could have been really interested if it wanted to, with both Alberto and Beryl forming within a couple weeks before it! However, every active streak does have its lull (unless the year is 2005), and especially this time of year it always seems this activity never sustains itself. So even when models tried to sniff something out on Sunday at the earliest, and I had a freaky dream of two storms simultaneously with the next two names on the list, there could have been chaos. But the fact was, everything pointed to something coming a little later, and I thus called for no tropical development. That is exactly what happened, so my grade for the first week of 2012 is an A.

Good first week! If a bit easy… but let’s see if can carry that momentum forward.

Current situation and models

The supposed area of development that was supposed to come this upcoming week, if it is to come, is quite far from being established. Instead, the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico look quite clear as of now, with no tropical development expected within 48 hours. There are some thunderstorms in the northern Gulf from a front, and it is true that those kinds of systems can spawn tropical developments. But no models are picking up on this system at all, and it looks extremely disorganized. Then again, how many models sniffed out those weird storms like Bret, Cindy, Franklin, and Gert last year?

Models, however, remain adamant about trying to develop something in the medium range in the western Caribbean. The GFS is still onboard for such a thing to happen in about a week. The HPC also shows a system with a pressure of 1008 millibars on Sunday the 17th. The Canadian and NOGAPS models also are trying to pick this area up, but such a system would be weak. But the Euro has been on-and-off, and currently is not onboard for this area to see development within the next week.

Moreover, there has been chatter that the MJO is ripe to reach a favorable phase for development in the Atlantic sometime in June. This week perhaps, or a bit later?

Recent history

Since 1960, these storms have developed or occurred this upcoming week:

An unnamed storm in 1965
Alma in 1966 (active coming in)
Agnes in 1972
A subtropical storm in 1982
Arlene in 1999
Alberto in 2006

That’s interesting when compared to last week. The number of storms last week was eight, but this week is six, with one having previously been active in Alma. Since we have no active storms right now, we will focus on the new developments stage, which suggests this would happen about once every ten years on average.

Of the new storms, only Agnes made it to hurricane strength, with winds topping at 85 mph. The subtropical storm and Alberto did reach maximum winds of 70 mph, however. All three of these storms, plus the unnamed storm in 1965, formed primarily in the Gulf of Mexico and took northward or northeastward paths. The unnamed storm was much weaker however, topping out at about 50 mph.

Arlene, for developing in a highly unusual spot for this time of year near Bermuda, actually did quite respectable with winds reaching 65 mph. Some forecasts even had her reaching hurricane strength! Also Alma re-emerged from the South into the Atlantic and managed to become a hurricane again with winds of 75-80 mph while skirting the East Coast before becoming extratropical.

So what does this all tell us?

You would think as June gets a bit further along that the chances of development improve a bit, but that is not really the case, or at least that is for now. But again, like last week, the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are the primary places to look for such activity. With models trying to pick something up by week’s end, it’s hard to entirely write off that possibility. But the agreement is also not 100 percent, and this idea was also thrown out last week for a similar time frame. It doesn’t appear to be materializing at this moment, anyway.

The Prediction

With model consensus a bit hot and cold on tropical development in about a week in the western Caribbean, it seems like something will eventually come from there. But the models are still not consistent on this happening, and history suggests that it is not very common during this middle part of June. Still, if it does, and it has enough time over water, it could really get going. But models don’t go along with that scenario, at least for now. I predict no tropical development through Sunday, June 17. Confidence is 70%.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

The week is over, it is time to evaluate.

This past week I again predicted no tropical cyclone development, but made a note that things may try to come together a bit in the western Caribbean after studying the models going into the prediction. Indeed, nothing has developed tropically this week, but there is some interesting weather blossoming over the western Caribbean, that may eventually develop further. But as it stands, there is not even an Invest out of this, and so for the second consecutive week my grade is an A.

New week coming up shortly.

-Andrew92