First line from Charleston, SC AFD issued at 3:10 PM EDT

[ColdFront77]

"PUBLIC...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE WESTWARD TODAY"

Bermuda high pressure continues to ridge westward today?
That would indeed slowdown or cease the northward movement of Hurricane Fabian.

[Rainband]

RUTT RO!!! :o

[DelStormLover]

And yet all the models show a fish storm..........

[ColdFront77]

There was forecast model guidance posted here last night (I believe from Stormsfury) indicating the very slow movement of Fabian in the next 3 1/2 to 7 days.

This must be at least one reason (if not the only reason) why the system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico may be having trouble moving until the weak cold front moves into northern Florida at the end of the week/this weekend.

[Aquawind]

That might explain the uncertain speed of the GOM system as pointed out in the TBW discussion as well.

[Stormsfury]

Yep, Tom ... that was the ETAxx I posted last night ...

However, I have to totally shake my head at the discussion from CHS this afternoon. If anything, convection has broken out along the Inland Coastal Counties and there's an ULL noted on WV imagery in the Western Atlantic.

SF

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_US/anim8wv.html

[Stephanie]

Do they usually buck the trend of the other forecasts??

[Stormsfury]

Do they usually buck the trend of the other forecasts??

Not generally, CHS has a relatively younger staff and a couple of newbies there and I'm still thinking that it was a flub in wording. Anyway, there is somewhat of a small shortwave ridge in place across the area with an ULL well offshore of the Southeast Coast. Here's the rest of the discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
310 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2003

PUBLIC...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE WESTWARD
TODAY...KEEPING A LID ON THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET OVER THE INLAND AREAS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A FRONT ACROSS VA/TN/MS AND A LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...THE LOW SHOULD MERGE WITH THIS FRONT AND
TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG IT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ONCE
AGAIN HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE GFS BEING FASTER...AND THE
UKMET/ETA THE TWO SLOWER SOLUTIONS. THIS BEING SAID...TOMORROW THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD STILL PUT A LID ON
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION (SIMILAR TO TODAY) AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM
THE FRONT GOES TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW IN THE GULF REMAINING TO THE
SOUTH. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE MAIN MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVING HERE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE AREA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY LATELY...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
NOT YET A CONCERN. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH BUILDS IN...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DOMINATE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
IN...WITH NEXT WEEK BEING MAINLY DRY.

[ColdFront77]

I am sorry for not posting the entire Area Forecast Discussion from the Charleston, SC National Weather Service office.
I found the first line interesting enough to post by itself.

[Stormsfury]

I am sorry for not posting the entire Area Forecast Discussion from the Charleston, SC National Weather Service office.
I found the first line interesting enough to post by itself.

No problem, Tom. Now that Tropical Depression #12 has been deemed it kinda throws the extended from there out the window.

SF

[Stephanie]

Not a problem Tom! The first line was an eye-catcher, that's for sure!!

You're probably right SF about the wording.