Fabian's fighting off the shear ... RECON find 142 kts winds

Stormsfury · #1 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:28 pm

The appearance of Fabian has improved quite remarkably in the last couple of hours and the eye has become more circular and clearer.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Stormsfury · #2 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:15 pm

The latest reconn found 142kts (165 mph winds 84 feet above the surface in the NW quad...Fabian completed yet another eyewall cycle and looks very impressive once again, and if anything, the ULL to the WNW may have just enhanced poleward outflow which is helping this bursting.

Single-channel Outflow. The single-channel outflow may be divided into two subcategories based on direction of the outflow channel. Tropical cyclones with single-channel poleward outflow pattern generally intensify at an average maximum rate of 15 to 20 kt/6 hr. Tropical cyclones with single-channel equatorward outflow pattern generally intensify at an average maximum rate of 25 to 28 kt/6 hr.

A strong upper level (250-200 hPa) cyclonic circulation to the north or northwest of a TC, namely the tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT or TUTT Cell), is a common occurrence during July and August in the northern Pacific. Sadler (1976) found that this type of upper-level circulation pattern is favorable for vigorous outflow to the north. In addition, this pattern generally occurs as the cyclone nears the western edge of the subtropical ridge where enhanced equatorward outflow is common. The combined effects of the northward and southward outflow often lead to rapid deepening.

000
URNT12 KNHC 032325
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/2245Z
B. 22 DEG 56 MIN N
62 DEG 50 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 86 DEG 106 KT
G. 346 DEG 14 NM
H. 939 MB
I. NA
J. 19 C/ NA M
K. 17 C/ NA C
L. OPEN SE
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 1 / 1
P. NOAA2 WX10A FABIAN OB 45
SLP FROM DROP AT 7,000FT/738MB
MAX FL WND 127 KT N QUAD 2011Z, ALSO FROM EYEWALL DROP
142KTS, 28M ABV SFC NW EYEWALL AT 2118Z.

weatherlover427 · #3 Postby **weatherlover427** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:17 pm

This is one strong puppy still then! :o Thank goodness it looks like it's going to miss the EC; but anyone in Bermuda and E Canada should beware! :o

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:20 pm

Oh boy those folks in Bermuda must be preparing for the worse case scenario that a major cane hits them.

mf_dolphin · #5 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:23 pm

If the current forecast track were to verify it would put Bermuda in the NE "Killer" quad of the storm. Even if it weakens some it still should be a CAT 3 storm when it hits. Let's all say a prayer for the people of Bermuda!

JetMaxx · #6 Postby **JetMaxx** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:31 pm

I'm not sure it will weaken Marshall....in fact, this hurricane could IMO be close to cat-5 status in 36 hours. SST's to the south of Bermuda are running 29-30°C...1-2° C above normal (look at the green area south of Bermuda and north of Puerto Rico).
http://128.160.23.54/products/MCSST/HPCg26.gif

I won't be surprised to see Fabian at 150 mph and 920-925 mb before he reaches Bermuda....which will be catastrophic if the core passes over that island :o

PW

Stormsfury · #7 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:37 pm

JetMaxx wrote:I'm not sure it will weaken Marshall....in fact, this hurricane could IMO be close to cat-5 status in 36 hours. SST's to the south of Bermuda are running 29-30°C...1-2° C above normal (look at the green area south of Bermuda and north of Puerto Rico).
http://128.160.23.54/products/MCSST/HPCg26.gif

I won't be surprised to see Fabian at 150 mph and 920-925 mb before he reaches Bermuda....which will be catastrophic if the core passes over that island :o

PW

If the conditions remains favorable enough for Fabian, then this is a possibility. The SST's are very warm, warm enough, clear up to 37ºN, and are still above 26ºC almost to 40ºN... This doesn't look real good for Bermuda...

#8 Postby **Stephanie** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:42 pm

Oh dear God!! That island will be stripped clean! :shocked!:

BEER980 · #9 Postby **BEER980** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 8:24 pm

A guy on another board that I visit lives there and they are getting serious about it. He says now the local pub's will be closed on Friday. He has nowhere to go so will have to ride it out. I mentioned to him he is on (the west side) a bad part of the island IMO and he says no worries.

mf_dolphin · #10 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 8:50 pm

I think the idea on the weakening is more from the interaction with the trough than the SST's. Even a CAT 3 storm is nothing to play with. A CAT 5 could be devastating.

weatherlover427 · #11 Postby **weatherlover427** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 8:55 pm

Bermuda is seriously in danger from this storm. Hope no one from this board lives there. :?

#12 Postby **wx247** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 9:05 pm

This is getting very serious. I wouldn't be hanging around on that island.

#13 Postby **JtSmarts** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 9:18 pm

Im praying that anyone who can will be able to leave and those that can't will find shelter.

Stormsfury · #14 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:38 pm

Latest discussion regarding Fabian has the track dangerously close to Bermuda. I don't like that at all, and hope for the citizens of Bermuda nothing but good things as Fabian approaches the island.

SF

AussieMark · #15 Postby **AussieMark** » Thu Sep 04, 2003 12:10 am

If the shear and dry air that Fabian has been suffering from recently relaxed could Fabian re-intensify back into a solid Category 4 Hurricane (winds of at least 140 mph)

#16 Postby **msbee** » Thu Sep 04, 2003 9:41 am

If you are all correct in your assessments and Fabian comes that close to or actually hits Bermuda as a Cat 3 , then NO side of the island, West or East, is safe
the whole storm is probably large than the whole island
I sure hope all my friends in Bermuda will be safe!

Fabian's fighting off the shear ... RECON find 142 kts winds

Fabian's fighting off the shear ... RECON find 142 kts winds

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