1:55 P.M. NWS Tampa Bay: landfall early Sat. a.m......

[dixiebreeze]

West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
155 PM EDT Thursday Sep 4 2003

Currently: heaviest rain remains offshore so far...with light to
moderate amounts along the coast and not much inland so far. Expect
some of the heavier rain to make it inland by late today.

Short term (tngt through sat): this part of the forecast is wholly
dependent on movement/strength of dew point 12. Current TPC forecast has dew point 12
developing into a T.S. And coming ashore over the nature coast
early Saturday morning. This would allow for the heaviest
rain/strongest winds later Friday into Saturday morning...and will
adjust zones/grids to fit this scenario.

Along those lines...will back off a bit on probability of precipitation in Charlotte and Lee
County for tonight...but hold on to Flood Watch as we expect some
heavier rain to develop in the Gulf and make it onshore on Friday.

By the way...with slower movement of dew point 12 now expected...will
extend the Flood Watch into Saturday. We could see some local 10
inch+ amounts once again by the time this event is over.

Extended (sun through thu): latest official forecast track from NHC has
the tropical cyclone departing our forecast area during Sunday. A trough of
low pressure is forecast by the GFS to hang back over the northern
Gulf...with westerly flow well established over the peninsula
through Monday. By Tuesday...trough exits east coast and is
replaced by light northeast winds as a ridge of high pressure begins
to drop into the southeastern states. Ridge establishes itself to
our north for Wednesday and Thursday with a return to more normal convection
patterns over the state.

Marine: similar to zones...winds and seas will be dominated by path
and strength of dew point 12 into the weekend. Will drop current scec for
southern legs as slower movement means a longer period before scec
conditions are reached.