Major hurricane in 96--Isabel Forecast 2

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.geocities.com/weatherwizard8 ... sabel.html

This is much different from the way I usually forecast, but I am calling for rapid intensification---the parameters are set.

Fabian coming at about 7:30 since I want to get the Isabel audio done, so I can explain my reasoning a little better.

[ncweatherwizard]

So long Fabian.

Still one more forecast tomorrow morning.

http://www.geocities.com/weatherwizard8 ... abian.html

[rob8303]

Impressive forecast again, Scott but the question I have: And I know it's too early, but go out on a limb a little...Do you see a CONUS hit? If so, where? BTW, do you see any large troughs or other such systems that may steer Isabelle away from CONUS like Fabian was?

[ncweatherwizard]

That's is a mighty long shot there. It really depends on the exact timing of things...since Isabel will track farther south than Fabian, it will likely take a little longer to curve when a trough comes by. And given the slow pace of Isabel, a trough will almost definitely pick it up at some point. Since the subtropical ridge over the East Central Atlantic will still be building westward (and it won't do so in great leaps in bounds after 96 hours) we may see Isabel move north in response to the ridge. If the ridge ends up stronger than what I think, Isabel would stay south, but would be far north enough to be caught by a trough.

I did a little analysis on this huge dry erase board in the classroom on the first floor of the dorm. I showed Isabel moving between Bermuda and the United States in 9 days...but anyhow we'll see.

The 96 and 120 hours for the next three days are going to be very difficult.