MAJOR HURRICANE
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MAJOR HURRICANE
What region is most in danger in your opinion of a Major hurricane strike this year (potentially)
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Josephine96
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JetMaxx
It's been over 11 years since Andrew....38 years since the last major Florida peninsula September hurricane (Betsy).
From 1871 to 1965, the Florida peninsula was struck by a major hurricane on average once every 4 years (23 majors in 95 years)....and there's only been 2 in my entire lifetime (and I'm 42 next month)......Statistically, that lack of intense landfalling hurricanes shouldn't go on much longer (I'm surprised it's lasted this long).
We've went 11 years since Andrew....and since 1871, the Florida peninsula has only gone that long between major canes on two occasions: 1874-1888 and 1966-1992....and records before 1900 are sketchy at best (Miami wasn't even incorporated until 1896).
Sooner or later the intense hurricanes will return to south Florida...and I think sooner...IMO very soon. :o :o
From 1871 to 1965, the Florida peninsula was struck by a major hurricane on average once every 4 years (23 majors in 95 years)....and there's only been 2 in my entire lifetime (and I'm 42 next month)......Statistically, that lack of intense landfalling hurricanes shouldn't go on much longer (I'm surprised it's lasted this long).
We've went 11 years since Andrew....and since 1871, the Florida peninsula has only gone that long between major canes on two occasions: 1874-1888 and 1966-1992....and records before 1900 are sketchy at best (Miami wasn't even incorporated until 1896).
Sooner or later the intense hurricanes will return to south Florida...and I think sooner...IMO very soon. :o :o
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GalvestonDuck
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Air Force Met -- hope you don't mind. I'm gonna copy and paste what you said in a previous discussion cuz it made the most sense.
BTW - "we" is in reference to SE TX and he was replying to my post about how I keep hearing people say we're overdue here. It's been 20 years since Alicia and it was 22 between Carla and Alicia (which, I'm told, was the longest span between major hurricanes here in the Hou/Galv area).
OK...here's how AFM explained it:
We are not out of the woods historically until the second week in October. It's all probabilities. How many times can you flip a coin and it come up heads? Everytime of course. However, the bet is you won't. You may have a season like '89 where you have Chantal in early August and Jerry in mid-Oct. Anything is possible.
Forecasting long-range weather patterns is like playing dice in Vegas. You really have no idea what will happen 2 months from now so the safest bet is climo and climo says no.
The same logic...only in reverse...is being applied by many here on this site: "It's been x number of years...we are due." Well...yeah...the only reason we are due is because climo says we are due. Mother nature does not look at her calendar and say "hey...texas is over-due for a cat 3 or higher...let's schedule it for mid-September." For example, if Texas get's a hurricane every 2.5 years...and we go from 1989-1998 without a hurricane...we are overdue...right? However, Since 1999 we have had two hurricanes. So...that is higher than the 2.5 avg. Does that mean we are "underdue"? Nope. Sometimes snakes eyes comes up two or three times in a row...and sometimes you can roll for an hour without hitting it.
The same climo that is being used to say "we are over-due" is the same climo being used to say "it won't happen." Odds are it won't happen. Climo says you are over-due. Being over-due for an event means absolutely nothing as you can be overdue for 20 more years...or you may get 3 Cat 3's in a row in '04.
Sometimes it comes up heads 5 times in a row...sometimes tails. Most of the time...it is a combo. Same with weather. Hence the reason the VERY first thing they teach you in forecaster's school is to NOT forecast records or against climo unless you have a VERY GOOD reason. Gut feelings do not a forecast make...especially when you go against climo.
Duck here again -- I hope neither of us gets it.
BTW - "we" is in reference to SE TX and he was replying to my post about how I keep hearing people say we're overdue here. It's been 20 years since Alicia and it was 22 between Carla and Alicia (which, I'm told, was the longest span between major hurricanes here in the Hou/Galv area).
OK...here's how AFM explained it:
We are not out of the woods historically until the second week in October. It's all probabilities. How many times can you flip a coin and it come up heads? Everytime of course. However, the bet is you won't. You may have a season like '89 where you have Chantal in early August and Jerry in mid-Oct. Anything is possible.
Forecasting long-range weather patterns is like playing dice in Vegas. You really have no idea what will happen 2 months from now so the safest bet is climo and climo says no.
The same logic...only in reverse...is being applied by many here on this site: "It's been x number of years...we are due." Well...yeah...the only reason we are due is because climo says we are due. Mother nature does not look at her calendar and say "hey...texas is over-due for a cat 3 or higher...let's schedule it for mid-September." For example, if Texas get's a hurricane every 2.5 years...and we go from 1989-1998 without a hurricane...we are overdue...right? However, Since 1999 we have had two hurricanes. So...that is higher than the 2.5 avg. Does that mean we are "underdue"? Nope. Sometimes snakes eyes comes up two or three times in a row...and sometimes you can roll for an hour without hitting it.
The same climo that is being used to say "we are over-due" is the same climo being used to say "it won't happen." Odds are it won't happen. Climo says you are over-due. Being over-due for an event means absolutely nothing as you can be overdue for 20 more years...or you may get 3 Cat 3's in a row in '04.
Sometimes it comes up heads 5 times in a row...sometimes tails. Most of the time...it is a combo. Same with weather. Hence the reason the VERY first thing they teach you in forecaster's school is to NOT forecast records or against climo unless you have a VERY GOOD reason. Gut feelings do not a forecast make...especially when you go against climo.
Duck here again -- I hope neither of us gets it.
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ameriwx2003
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Stormsfury
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OtherHD wrote:Being "due" has NOTHING to with who will get a major hurricane. Florida could go 50 years without one. That doesn't mean their chances are any higher than the year before.
Bingo. It's all about the overall mean pattern ... How about last year? ... 4 TC hits in Louisiana, plus one this year (Bill) ... and Texas, 2 TC hits this year and a close shave with Erika.
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JetMaxx
I'd bet every penny I own that the Florida peninsula gets blasted by a major hurricane in the next two years. Climatology doesn't lie....the Florida peninsula is BY FAR the most likely area of this country to experience a landfalling major hurricane....and yet they've only experienced two since 1961. That lull isn't going to go on much longer....no way!!
If you don't take this "educated amateur's" opinion seriously...ask a few of the pro's....Robert Sheets, Neil Frank, Hugh Willoughby, Chris Landsea, William Gray...see what they tell you.
Look at the hurricane cycle of the Gulf Coast from 1961-1983 and Carolinas between 1984-1999. It's only a matter of time until it's south Florida's turn again (just like it was from 1926-1935 and 1944-1950); except this time....there are 11 million people and trillions of dollars in property in harms way. :o
Intense hurricanes are as climatologically common to southern Florida as F3 tornadoes are to Oklahoma.
When this lull ends...and it WILL end soon...you'll see damage that will dwarf Andrew's toll....and IMO put a lot of insurance companies in the bankruptcy line.
If you don't take this "educated amateur's" opinion seriously...ask a few of the pro's....Robert Sheets, Neil Frank, Hugh Willoughby, Chris Landsea, William Gray...see what they tell you.
Look at the hurricane cycle of the Gulf Coast from 1961-1983 and Carolinas between 1984-1999. It's only a matter of time until it's south Florida's turn again (just like it was from 1926-1935 and 1944-1950); except this time....there are 11 million people and trillions of dollars in property in harms way. :o
Intense hurricanes are as climatologically common to southern Florida as F3 tornadoes are to Oklahoma.
When this lull ends...and it WILL end soon...you'll see damage that will dwarf Andrew's toll....and IMO put a lot of insurance companies in the bankruptcy line.
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