Upcoming week - November 6-12

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Evaluating last week

Sandy was of course the big player this past week. As the week was beginning, Sandy was poised to make an unusual turn northwest into the Mid-Atlantic States, and I predicted a landfall near midnight on Monday somewhere between Atlantic City, New Jersey, and Ocean City, Maryland. Indeed, landfall occurred in this window, near Cape May in far southern New Jersey. However, Sandy sped up more than I thought before landfall, which occurred at about 8:00 PM. This would be a pretty decent prediction for later in the week, but not quite as good for so early in the week. I was also incorrect on Sandy’s strength; some intensification was likely to about 80 mph, but 90 mph seemed like a stretch. Of course, Sandy did weaken to 80 mph, but the wind speed wasn’t the big deal of course. The flooding was a much bigger story with this hurricane, or superstorm as it became as it made landfall – another thing I nailed, her becoming extratropical just before landfall. Indeed, a large storm surge inundated New Jersey and New York, especially New York City. Record tides that I’m not sure I would have been quite capable of conveying in this type of prediction occurred even. On top of it, there was lots of heavy rainfall inland as this storm slowly re-curved over Pennsylvania and upstate New York – though I missed the snowfall threat in West Virginia. I was accurate in the effects reaching into Ohio even, though I didn’t see the wind whipping up Lake Michigan even as it happened! Sandy actually weakened over land quite a bit quicker than I thought and the effects of rainfall were less pronounced than I imagined later in the week. Still, this was quite a disastrous storm as it was. Overall, the only blips were the slight timing discrepancy in regards to landfall, intensity being a little off (but hardly mattering given the size of this storm), and missing the snowfall threat. I did a pretty good job on what Sandy would do to the Northeast as a whole.

Sandy was also the only player in town this past week. This was another accurate projection on my part. Though a subtropical area was brought up by models, it never came to fruition, and I wasn’t ready to buy it either. Overall, I give myself a very respectable B+ for this past week.

Sandy is gone and the Atlantic has quieted down it appears. Let’s take a look and see if that’s really the case…

Current situation and models

The Atlantic is quiet in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean was brought up by a few members at Storm2k, but this feature is heading inland over Central America and is unlikely to develop. The GFS and Euro models do not show any other features developing in the tropical Atlantic this upcoming week. There will be quite a powerful Nor’easter to look at by Wednesday and Thursday probably affecting the same areas hammered by Sandy, but it doesn’t look to become tropical in nature. One other feature that has often been brought up is another area by about the weekend in the southwestern Caribbean. However, the GFS and Euro models do not show this feature for that time frame anymore. The Euro does show some interesting thunderstorms northwest of the Cape Verde Islands during the weekend, but nothing organized.

Overall, if the models are to be believed, the Atlantic indeed should be quiet this week, from a tropical standpoint.

Recent history

During this upcoming week, these storms have developed since 1960 and were not previously active:

Inga in 1961
Jenny in 1961
An unnamed storm in 1964
Lois in 1966
Jeanne in 1980
Klaus in 1984
Gordon in 1994
Paloma in 2008
Ida in 2009
Sean in 2011

That’s a total of ten storms in the satellite era, or about one every five years. Seven of these storms went on to become hurricanes, but only Paloma became a major hurricane. Also, of the three that did not become hurricanes, Inga and Sean both peaked at 65-70 mph, not far under the threshold, while the 1964 unnamed storm simply ran out of time before heading into Central America. The western Caribbean is also the preferred area of development, with five storms developing there. Three developed in the open subtropical Atlantic from frontal systems, one in the eastern Caribbean (Klaus), and one in the Bay of Campeche (Inga). Paloma, the sole major hurricane, occurred in the favored western Caribbean.

So what does this all tell us?

We should probably peer into the western Caribbean if we are looking for tropical development this upcoming week. The GFS and Euro models have recently hinted at something coming out of this region, but are currently saying it will be at least a week away. Of course, a huge Nor’easter looms large for the Northeast just as they try to recover from Hurricane Sandy, but it likely will not become tropical in nature at any point in its life. The rest of the tropical Atlantic looks very quiet this week, with nothing organized coming down the pipe looking at the models. History also corroborates that nothing should develop anywhere else in the tropical Atlantic this upcoming week. The hurricane season ends in less than a month, after all.

The Prediction

This is a pretty cut and dry week looking at the surface. However, the Nor’easter will cause problems later this week. I predict no tropical cyclone development this upcoming week. Confidence is 85%.

However, for residents of the Northeast, please remember that this is a TROPICAL prediction only and I have little knowledge on the power or meteorology of Nor’easters. Please listen to your local NWS office and your authorities for what to do if indeed this powerful storm occurs and threatens your area. Thank you and best of luck, especially after Hurricane Sandy.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

Let's evaluate.

Last week there was nothing to start the week from a tropical standpoint. The only interesting feature was a developing Nor’easter during the middle of the week. I did note that this feature could cause headaches for the East Coast, but likely not become a tropical or subtropical entity. Along with that, I predicted no other systems would develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone this past week. This happened exactly to fruition. I also cautioned not to look to me for advice on the Nor’easter, because for one thing this is only one man’s very unofficial opinion, but also because my knowledge on these storms is a lot more limited than it is for hurricanes. With all of that said, and with my very accurate prediction, my grade for this past week is an A.

New week coming up shortly.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

And I also just realized that I made this for the wrong dates! This should have been from November 5 to 11! Oh well, guess we all goof up like this every now and then.

-Andrew92