Central Atlantic disturbance

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

There is a very broad area of low pressure attached to the tail-end of the slowly eastward-moving frontal zone across the Central Atlantic. This low is expected to detach from the front and intensify while retrograding back to the northwest. Many of the global models indicate that this will affect Bermuda as a developing tropical cyclone, and most of them show it transitioning into an extratropical cyclone southeast of Newfoundland in 5-7 days. I'd say there is a high chance we see Valerie by Thursday.

[cycloneye]

Nothing yet from NHC.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 13 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Still waiting for that circle...

[Florida1118]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141135
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
----------------
Idk, maybe they don't see it forming. That or they will wait until it about forms because they are skeptical.

[Hurricanehink]

Still no mention, although the system has a circulation on satellite imagery. The models did a good job at anticipating it, but it doesn't look like there's time for it to become tropical.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Well we're not done yet...another low is expected to develop over the coming days and take a similar, slower path. Contrary to the first low, the models start this one off subtropical and transition it into a fully tropical cyclone.

[supercane4867]

TC formation not likely


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN

[WeatherGuesser]

I'd say there is a high chance we see Valerie by Thursday.

Is it Thursday yet?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Honestly my previous forecast about the disturbance southwest of Bermuda was completely off. While it did become a relatively intense area of low pressure, it stayed cold-core the entire time. I was basing my forecast off of the GFS, which showed brief subtropical transition north of the island...which was probably a bit silly of me with the other models showing it staying cold core.

However...

Most models are in agreement that a intense low will develop northwest of the island of Bermuda this week and start off subtropical before transitioning tropical. And it lasts more than a day this time.

We'll have to see how that goes.

[gigabite]

I am not seeing a well formed Bermuda High. I am cracking the seal on the hurricane supplies. Yum, Yum. I probably shouldn't buy things I like to eat so much, because I might not be restrained enough to ration the food.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Continues with Valerie.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Intense cold core low...remains to be seen whether or not it will transition.

[tolakram]

Is the GFS working with old SST data? I see the model leaves the low behind, moves it south a bit, then accelerates rapidly north. Too cold and any transition too slow to do anything, in my opinion.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Hmmm...

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... 128y82.jpg

[tolakram]

saved image



Nothing sustained, just bursts of convection.