Verification of 2012 forecasts from Klotzbach/Gray

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cycloneye
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Verification of 2012 forecasts from Klotzbach/Gray

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 30, 2012 3:10 pm

Is a long report (79 pages) in which they admit being wrong about the number of named storms because of some factors.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ov2012.pdf
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Re: Verification of 2012 forecasts from Klotzbach/Gray

#2 Postby NDG » Sat Dec 01, 2012 8:16 am

Very good read. They explain the reason why the lack of tropical activity and or strengthening at the MDR despite above average SSTs and below average shear during the peak of the hurricane season.
Interesting that they are coming out with the first 2013 season forecast next Friday, I thought they had stopped coming out with a forecast in December? I wonder if in future forecasts they are going to take into consideration the mid level Atmospheric conditions (instability) at the MDR, not sure if they can be forecasted in long range forecasts.
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