EURO depiction of Isabel quite unsettling ...

[Stormsfury]

Isabel continues to strength in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic tonight and will likely become a hurricane sometime on Sunday. The scenario depicted on tonight's EUROpean model guidance run is quite unsettling and this scenario depends on the EURO's solution on what happens to Henri. The EURO has Henri making a transition into an extratropical or possibly a subtropical cyclone which is drawn slowly northward into the NE states. This is only model guidance which the EUROpean is an excellent medium range model but in no way am I saying Isabel is a threat to the EC ... just what the EURO depicts tonight.

The Day 6 EURO depicts Isabel just north of Pureto Rico and moving almost due west and the Day 7 EURO depicts a potential Islands hit as Isabel approaches the Bahamas...

Day 6 EURO
Day 7 EURO

The Day 10 3 day average 500mb is depicting Isabel in the Bahamas and a weakness in between two ridges for Isabel to be channeled up.

Day 10 - 3 Day Average of the 500mb Geopotential Heights

Animated loops -
EURO 500mb Geopotential Heights
EURO Mean Sea Level Pressure Loop

Another Loop from the College of DuPage USA/Canada View

SF

[TampaFl]

Thanks Stormsfury. Something we will need to keep an eye on.

Robert

[wx247]

Yes, Storms. Thanks for sharing. I hope that the EURO is just having a bad dream.