Upcoming week - November 26-December 2 (FINAL of 2012)

[Andrew92]

Evaluating last week

Well, only one system on models looked to pose any remote threat of developing tropically this past week. Even that threat did not come anywhere near materializing: a non-tropical storm off the East Coast that never even prompted a code yellow from the National Hurricane Center. This was accurately predicted on my part, as well as predicting no other disturbances would develop tropically or subtropically. Therefore, my grade for this past week is an A.

This is the last week of the 2012 Atlantic season. Could anything surprise and develop? Let’s see…

Current situation and models

Frankly, things aren’t looking good for any tropical development this upcoming week. The only feature that may develop per the GFS and Euro models would do so probably late on Wednesday in the western Caribbean. However, it would be inland over Central America within 24 hours, and never re-emerge over another part of the Caribbean or the Bay of Campeche. No impressive tropical waves are heading in that direction at this time, which tells me such a feature will probably just a strong blow-up of thunderstorms with no real organization.

The only other feature the Euro sees would be during the weekend. It would occur way out over the open Atlantic far from any land areas. It would develop from a non-tropical system on Friday or Saturday and bolt out to sea quickly. The GFS does not really see this kind of system at this time frame, which seems indicative of its unlikeliness of happening.

Recent history

Since 1960, these storms have developed this upcoming week and were not already active:

Karen in 1989
Otto in 2004
Epsilon in 2005

Now we have only three new developments this upcoming week. One was in the Western Caribbean (Karen), while the other two (Otto and Epsilon) developed from non-tropical origins over the open Atlantic. Only Epsilon managed to become a hurricane, in the crazy 2005 season. The other two storms were quite weak, though Karen was at least a headache for about a week spinning over the Western Caribbean, dumping heavy rains over parts of Central America and Cuba. Otto was a much shorter-lived storm as a tropical system – yes, it had a decent life overall, but mostly as a non-tropical storm.

So what does this all tell us?

This season appears to be all but over. Of course, don’t forget way back in May when we already had Alberto and Beryl to begin with. But nothing is imminent coming down the pipe per the models, and history says the odds are just too long to see anything develop this upcoming week. I mean, only three storms have pulled the trigger and actually developed, and only Epsilon managed to become a very surprising hurricane.

The Prediction

I just cannot get myself to see any new developments in the Western Caribbean or from a non-tropical entity this upcoming week. The guidance is just too weak and too inconsistent for my liking. I predict no tropical or subtropical cyclone activity this week. Confidence is 90%.

-Andrew92

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well maybe something. I could use a little rain here in S. Fl.

The long range models are now showing that the high over the
southeast United States will be strengthening as it moves into the
western Atlantic waters this weekend. At the same time...a trough
of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea will also be moving
slowly northwest towards the Yucatan Channel. This will allow for
the breezy to windy easterly winds to remain over South Florida
this weekend along with the deeper moisture in place. So will
continue the slight chance of showers over the County Warning Area at this time
for next weekend. But if the models continue to show this weather
pattern for next weekend...then the probability of precipitation will have to be raised
in later forecasts.

[KatDaddy]

The 2012 Hurricane Season ends tomorrow and it was another very active season with 19 named storms. The 2012 season will be remembered for Hurricane Isaac which brought Katrina flooding SE of NOLA along the Mississippi and and Hurricane Sandy which was the Katrina of NE US. Closer to home the Texas Coast was spared this season thankfully. The only potential threat was Debby in June with models pointing her toward the Texas Coast and becoming a possible CAT 1 or CAT 2 at landfall. Fortunately she did not miss the weak trough and moved NE across FLA and into the W Atl. 2013 will mark 52 years since a major hurricane has made landfall between Freeport, TX and Aransas Pass, TX. When that occurs we will know what SW LA experienced with IKE 2008 and Rita 2005. IKE was mild with regards to winds but also had a CAT 4 surge at the coast just E of Galveston and into SW LA. Move IKE 30 miles SW down the coast of Galveston and increase the winds to 150MPH and then see what occurs across the Houston-Galveston areas. With the approach of every hurricane season I promote prepardness and seasonal forecasts. For the 2013 season expect no less. Wish I was on FB for IKE in 2008 to help relay information to family and friends but I am here now. One last note.....it only take one hurricane landfall in your area to make it an active season.

[Andrew92]

And it is time for the last evaluation of 2012.

As expected for the end of hurricane season, this week was quiet with no tropical or subtropical activity. This was accurately predicted, so my grade for this last week is an A.

However, let's go one step further and see how I did with each storm as a whole this year....

Alberto and Beryl - skip, as these formed in May, before this column even begins.

Chris - The disturbance that became Chris was not one I thought would develop. However, crazy as it sounds, I still remember this dream about a storm named Chris pretty much exactly where it developed. I can't imagine I would have ever predicted Chris becoming a hurricane, but I probably should have predicted some kind of a named storm out of this system.

Debby - That same aforementioned dream also featured a weak storm named Debby in the Gulf of Mexico heading towards Florida. This storm developed on day 6 of a prediction, and at that time models were all over the place but generally conceding on the western Gulf, not the central to eastern part which happened. Still, the timing and intensity were not too far off all things considered. But I had a chance to redeem myself with this storm, and did so quite brilliantly. Models were trying to decide if this storm would go west or into Florida, and I went the Florida route as a weakening storm, which happened to near perfection. I even near-perfectly nailed the landfall time too!

Ernesto - I started out quite well with this storm on a track and intensity standpoint. This storm did go a bit further south in the eastern Caribbean than I thought, as well as somewhat faster, but the intensity was always what I thought would happen. But the later period gave me problems. Ernesto scooted a little further norther in the western Caribbean than I thought and intensified a lot more than I thought too. I also thought Ernesto would spend more time over the Bay of Campeche, but he didn't. The effects overall were well-stated, but overall this was a mixed-review storm for me.

Florence - This one totally snuck up on me. Was short-lived but managed 60 mph winds, though hit nobody. Yikes!

Gordon - I did a very good job on this storm. I boldly predicted a hurricane six days out... and it happened! Yet, even so, Gordon still got stronger than I could have predicted. But the track was masterfully executed, and this was overall just one of my best-predicted storms of the year, maybe even all time.

Helene - This came off of the seventh tropical depression of the year. I really didn't see much from this system, at first, which was about right. I mean, maybe I lose some points for not calling for a depression at first, but not many. I also did foresee this re-developing as a depression in the western Gulf of Mexico, but not into a tropical storm. That said, Helene wasn't a strong storm at all, peaking at 45 mph and weakening before landfall. Overall, this was a passable effort for a difficult storm to predict.

Isaac - Another somewhat mixed, but overall well-predicted storm. I did quite well early on with the track until Isaac reached Haiti. Isaac intensified quite a bit more than I thought in the Caribbean as it nearly became a hurricane. The northwest turn into Haiti and eastern Cuba occurred late in a week but still caught me by surprise. I guess in that area the intensity wouldn't have been too bad though, as I recall having Isaac at 50-60 mph around that time. But once Isaac reached the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday night, I shone nicely with this storm. I did overstate the wind intensity a bit, thinking Isaac might become a category 2 storm instead of the 80-mph storm it was (operationally, as 85 mph would still not surprise me). But I predicted a pressure in the 960s at landfall, and it was 966 I think, and landfall was in the correct state Louisiana, when models still were deciding between there to the Florida Panhandle. I also did a good job with the wave, surge, wind, and rainfall aspects, though the tornadoes had me a little off-guard in their far reach. I guess I wasn't expecting Isaac to be so large in size by then. Still, a well-executed prediction on this important phase of this storm's life.

Joyce - I saw the Invest, but thought it wouldn't develop. Guess it's not much of a prediction killer if it is far from land and as weak as it was. However, see more after Tony...

Kirk - I gave in to models that didn't give the disturbance that spawned this storm a chance and blew it bad. I don't know that I would have predicted such a strong hurricane, but I should have been able to develop this storm a little. Oh well.

Leslie - Because I didn't predicted Kirk to become the storm it was further north, I had this storm being named Kirk instead. But the meteorology behind this storm started out quite sound. I predicted the timing quite well and had good handles on the track and intensity, though took it too far south at first. But later on, when Leslie became a hurricane, I thought she might become a major with conditions seemingly becoming more favorable. But she spent too much time over one area and never recovered. The track north into Newfoundland was well-executed though. Overall, decent track prediction, only OK intensity prediction.

Michael - Another storm, like Kirk, that I didn't think would develop, that blew me away. How I could predict no storm out of this, only to see a category 3 storm, is beyond my imagination. Just an unacceptable prediction for this storm.

Nadine - For the pest that this storm was, I actually did quite a good job on this one! The early going was rough from intensity again but very good on track. I thought Nadine would take advantage of a warm plume of waters she might pass over, but didn't take as much advantage as I thought. I actually thought she might become a category 3 storm, not peak at category 1. But I also correctly read that she wouldn't go straight out to sea upon reaching the Azores and would loop around erratically. I did have some slight issues still with intensity, but did foresee her becoming a hurricane again, though not quite all the way up to 90 mph. The little details of the track of this storm were very difficult to pin down, but luckily this storm only threatened the Azores and I handled the threat probably as well as expected.

Oscar - Another weak storm that snuck up on me.

Patty - Like Oscar, weak and didn't see this coming.

Rafael - Due to missing Patty and occurring in the same week, I thought this would be Patty instead. The timing of development was on cue, but the location was off. I thought this storm would develop east of the Caribbean, but it happened inside that basin instead. The track was well-executed after that, and I correctly predicted a hurricane out of Rafael as it quickly headed out to sea. I also accurately took Rafael east of Bermuda and far from the other islands of the Azores and Newfoundland.

Sandy - This was another "tale of two halves" storm for me. The first half was quite rough especially for intensity. I don't think I would have predicted such a strong hurricane into Cuba, but maybe should have had a hurricane of some intensity by then - and I do think Sandy has quite a chance of being upgraded to a category 3 upon review for that area. That said, I timed Sandy's approach into Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas well. For the time, Sandy could have gone for heading towards the East Coast or out to sea, and I went with the out-to-sea route based on climatology. Actually, Sandy did initially follow that northeastward path on Sunday, so I wasn't too far off the mark, but I had her closer to Bermuda than she was. But after that, I nailed Sandy's landfall in an area between Atlantic City and Ocean City on Monday night as a just-named extratropical storm of still hurricane strength and causing lots of problems. I missed the snow that came, but I saw the high amount of flooding and wind damage that came. Overall, I did a somewhat decent job on the worst storm of the year. For that matter, so did the experts, and Sandy still caused such pain, havoc, and strife. You can sometimes just never be fully prepared for these things I guess, but I also have no actual hurricane experience - it's only a hobby.

Tony - I saw this one coming, and I had its track down. But I thought Tony might surprise and become a hurricane.... and of course it didn't. I guess I should have seen Oscar having been a short-lived weak storm and thought Tony would emulate that. A learning experience there, but no threat to land means Tony wasn't a great big deal overall.

I would say overall, I did a pretty good job on most of the 2012 storms, and this might have been my best year yet for this column. However, there were a few systems I thought would develop that did not:

In July, I thought a system might pop from a frontal system to become a short-lived Ernesto, but it didn't happen. It was a logical prediction, as El Nino was seemingly under way, the GFS and Euro supported it, and climatology suggested that this is a favorable development area in El Nino years.

Also, remember how I didn't predict Joyce to come from the system it did? Well, there was another system in the western Gulf of Mexico that tried to develop too. Had it become a named storm... it would have been Joyce. I thought this one looked like a better chance to organize into a storm, and had it becoming that name as a result. Ouch!

Lastly, in mid-November, a promising looking subtropical feature appeared on the GFS and Euro models, and I bit and thought it could become Valerie. But the system never even got a code yellow from the National Hurricane Center. I actually don't regret looking at this system for development, and it was there and followed a path towards Newfoundland that was suggested. It just didn't have enough meat to get a name.

And that is a wrap on the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Til 2013... though I have to give a couple of heads-ups now that I am sure I will again later. First off, I started getting a little writer's block late in the season and was kind of waiting for the season to end as a result. I think this may have been due to other current events, both in the news and in my life. I don't know if you could tell but I kind of felt like I rushed some of my late season predictions, though most were still well done anyway. Maybe this long break until June will help a little. Lastly, it is looking like from June 1-9 that I will be vacationing that whole time in Yosemite in central California. I will likely be camping, and have heard it can be difficult to get Internet access there even from a laptop when doing so. From my alternative, a smart phone, it would be nearly impossible. Therefore, if I come back in 2013 - and I am hoping to do so and not just let writer's block get to me - I may be a week or so late on my first prediction.

OK, good night Atlantic Season 2012!

-Andrew92