Isabel IS a hurricane with a very large eye.

[Stormsfury]

This was the visible shot taken at 1215z this morning ... furthermore, the movement has been NW ...

This is a look at the transformation and the NW movement this morning and you can see how Isabel is separating itself from the monsoon trough.

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... rmRel.html

[OtherHD]

How long will this NW motion continue?

[Stormsfury]

Fabian is forcing an ULL southward across the Central Atlantic ..

Shorter Water Vapor Loop
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... vjava.html

24 hour water vapor loop
http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/a ... loope.html

[OtherHD]

So is it just me or will that steer Isabel harmlessly out to sea?

[Stormsfury]

So is it just me or will that steer Isabel harmlessly out to sea?

The effects actually look temporary but we shall see ...

SF

[BayouVenteux]

Might that actually be a fluctuation in the eye position due to strengthening?
Also, IMHO, the angle that the floater is viewing the storm from seems to exaggerate the movement somewhat due to the distortion. Have to wait and see what the next advisory has to say. BTW, Stormsfury, thanks for that link to your JAVA loop...good stuff!

[wxman57]

I'm not sure that's a "true" eye, as you'd see on a major hurricane like Fabian. I just heard Steve Lyons refer to it as "eye-like". Sometimes a TS will wrap convection around a center, leaving an open eye-like feature. But Isabel is probably a hurricane now.

I'm wondering if the models are seeing that sharp trof axis between 50-55W. The trend has been farther south with each tropical model run. Perhaps the models are unaware of the real flow patterns out there? It happens...

[Stormsfury]

[Thunder44]

as of the 11am advisory Isabell is a 75mph hurricane and moving WNW 10mph

[CocoaBill]

that would be the 11 AM advisory.....

[Stormsfury]

I'm not sure that's a "true" eye, as you'd see on a major hurricane like Fabian. I just heard Steve Lyons refer to it as "eye-like". Sometimes a TS will wrap convection around a center, leaving an open eye-like feature. But Isabel is probably a hurricane now.

I'm wondering if the models are seeing that sharp trof axis between 50-55W. The trend has been farther south with each tropical model run. Perhaps the models are unaware of the real flow patterns out there? It happens...

You called it. Excerpt from the NHC Discussion regarding Isabel

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/09...BASED ON ABOUT A 9 HOUR MOTION
BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE MICROWAVE POSITIONS. THE EYE FEATURE IS RAGGED
AND NOT REALLY A TRUE EMBEDDED EYE. CONVENTIONAL WATER VAPOR AND
SSMI VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE DRY AIR HAS BEEN WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST...WHICH HAS
ACTUALLY ERODED THE CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE. FOR THIS REASON
...THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
'EYE' AND CLOSER TO THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. EVEN WITH THAT...THE
INITIAL POSITION IS STILL MORE THAN 40 NMI NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY POSITION. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AND THERE IS GOOD CONVERGENCE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
48-72 HOURS...WITH A MORE WESTWARD MOTION AFTER THAT. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WHICH INDICATES
THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 32N LATITUDE SHOULD GRADUALLY
SHIFT WESTWARD AND PERHAPS EVEN CLOSE OFF A 500 MB HEIGHT CENTER A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...MAINLY DUE TO
THE MORE NORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION.

[Stephanie]

That development was awfully FAST!! She does have a good shape to her, and looks like she could another "classic" like Fabian.