Joe Bastardi thoughts this afternoon

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hurricanedude
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#21 Postby hurricanedude » Sat Sep 06, 2003 7:07 pm

nice thing is he gets paid to be wrong, we just get crow feed..LOL
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Steve Cosby
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Shear

#22 Postby Steve Cosby » Sat Sep 06, 2003 11:18 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Perhaps JB hasn't looked at a shear map lately. Perhaps JB needs to stopping hugging the Canadian/UKMET ...

SF


JB made the comment that 20 KTS shear over a system traveling in the same direction as the shear means shear is cancelled to the extent of motion.

Makes perfectly good sense to me...
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#23 Postby bayouwxman » Sun Sep 07, 2003 12:49 am

JB made the comment that 20 KTS shear over a system traveling in the same direction as the shear means shear is cancelled to the extent of motion.

Makes perfectly good sense to me...


Sure...if Henri was moving that fast, but he isn't and will actually slow down, making him more vulnerable to the shear.
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ColdFront77

#24 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:29 am

We all know if that upper level wind shear didn't occur the National Hurricane forecast would have obviously been better. The shear wasn't originally expected to have that ULL that close to it blow off the impressive convection flareup Saturday afternoon.
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#25 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 07, 2003 4:34 am

JB also said Henri would be a hurricane when it hit the west coast of Florida. I guess 15-20 kts is almost a hurricane.


That's not true. JB did mention the possibility that it might become a hurricane, before hitting Florida, but he expected a 50-60mph TS storm.
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#26 Postby Steve Cosby » Sun Sep 07, 2003 10:56 am

bayouwxman wrote:Sure...if Henri was moving that fast, but he isn't and will actually slow down, making him more vulnerable to the shear.


No, the point was that 20KTS shear + 10KTS motion equals only 10KTS shear over the system if both are traveling the same direction.
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