What is your evaluation of the North Atlantic 2012 season?

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cycloneye
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What is your evaluation of the North Atlantic 2012 season?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 20, 2012 2:14 pm

I know that is still possible that something may form in the final days of the season and even in December but we can make from now evaluations about what occured in this North Atlantic 2012 season.This thread is for the members to post their take on what occured in general terms about the 2012 season.

My highlights of the season are the following:

1-Of course Sandy was the biggest one in terms of damage and lost of life in some countries.(We know all the debates going on about this system on various aspects)

2-Another year with no Major Hurricanes making landfall in the U.S since Wilma in 2005. (Of course the Sandy debate about that rages on)

3-It was facinating to track in open waters Major Hurricane Michael and Hurricane Gordon. (Maybe Gordon is upgraded to Major at post season analysis?)

4-Issac's sometimes erratic tracks thru the Caribbean. (One of those was moving WSW away from Puerto Rico)

5-Tracking Alberto and Beryl (Almost a hurricane at landfall in Northern Florida) on May.

6-Tracking Hurricane Ernesto as it was going thru a intensifying phase just east of Yucatan.

7-All Tropical Depressions turned into named storms.

8-Nadine was like a battery being recharged again and again and again!! :)

9-No El Nino to affect the season as it was forecast.

10-So far one member is the closest in the Storm2k poll to the 19/10/1 that the season has.
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#2 Postby RL3AO » Tue Nov 20, 2012 4:19 pm

That easterly jet shutting down everything in the MDR. Waves moving at 25 to 30kts at times. They never had a chance until they got to Jamaica's longitude.
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#3 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Nov 20, 2012 5:06 pm

The fact that the quality of the storms were somewhat better and definitely more interesting to track as well compared to the prior 2011 season which had more major hurricanes!
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#4 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Nov 20, 2012 5:27 pm

Chris was also a remarkable storm, It became a tropical cyclone at latitudes above 40°N.
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#5 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Nov 21, 2012 10:16 am

The season was somewhat similar to last year in that most the hurricanes this season thrived in the subtropics. They struggled in the tropical latitudes until strengthening once it moved north.

TD7 reforming and becoming Helene almost a week after first being a TD. What is the longest period of reformations?

Only one major this season and it was only a minimal one. Gordon and Sandy and even Kirk might of been majors, we'll see in post-season analysis.

Beryl became the strongest storm to hit the US offseason.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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#6 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:35 pm

Very unusual, destructive, and deadly season. High number of named storms and hurricanes (Cat 1/2), but only 2 major hurricanes (Michael and Sandy (will be upgraded in post-season analysis)). Over $55 billion in damage and over 275 fatalities.

Michael has to be my favorite storm of the year. When it first developed, everybody was bashing the National Hurricane Center for naming a small swirl in the Central Atlantic with no chance of being anything significant. Several days later, the storm is a major hurricane with a well-defined eye.
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Re: What is your evaluation of the North Atlantic 2012 season?

#7 Postby Hurricanehink » Wed Nov 21, 2012 12:51 pm

There were 19 storms in both seasons, and some similarities, so I matched every storm from 2011 to a storm in 2012. It's not perfect, but it was fun to do.

Alberto - Sean: both were subtropical in nature, formed off the southeast United States, and were not in the main part of the season (August through October)
Beryl - Arlene: difficult one to choose, but both were nearly hurricanes at an early-season landfall, and were wet storms, both producing over 12 inches of rain
Chris - Cindy: formed far to the north early in the season, and while Chris was a hurricane, Cindy reached 70 mph winds
Debby - Nate: another difficult one, but both strengthened despite unfavorable conditions in the Gulf of Mexico only to weaken before landfall
Ernesto - Harvey: both struck the Yucatan Peninsula (Harvey in Belize) and restrengthened in the Bay of Campeche before hitting Mexico
Florence - Don: quick-moving, moderate tropical storms that quickly weakened
Gordon - Katia: strong hurricane, had extended easterly track and affected Europe
Helene - Emily: both formed near the eastern Caribbean, degenerated into a tropical wave, and later reformed as a tropical storm
Isaac - Lee: second-costliest storm of the season, both struck Louisiana, and dropped heavy rainfall
Joyce - Franklin: weakest (Joyce), or tied for weakest (Franklin) storm of the season, formed in a similar location to several other storms in their respective seasons, but failed to intensify
Kirk - Rina: difficult one, but both quickly intensified to near or at major hurricane status, and then weakened almost as quickly
Leslie - Maria: long-lived TS that eventually became hurricane, similar path to hit Newfoundland
Michael - Ophelia: strengthened significantly despite predictions to the contrary, became strongest storm of the season unexpectedly
Nadine - Philippe: long-lived storm over the eastern Atlantic
Oscar - Unnamed: weak and short-lived
Patty - Jose: arguing on here whether it should have been classified, short-lived, weak
Rafael - Bret: difficult, one of the last ones I picked, no real reason, aside from passing near Bermuda
Sandy - Irene: strong hurricane in Caribbean, then were very damaging in the northeast United States
Tony - Gert: strong tropical storm that remained at sea

Not perfect, but it was fun to do!
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Re: What is your evaluation of the North Atlantic 2012 season?

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 21, 2012 4:17 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:There were 19 storms in both seasons, and some similarities, so I matched every storm from 2011 to a storm in 2012. It's not perfect, but it was fun to do.

Alberto - Sean: both were subtropical in nature, formed off the southeast United States, and were not in the main part of the season (August through October)
Beryl - Arlene: difficult one to choose, but both were nearly hurricanes at an early-season landfall, and were wet storms, both producing over 12 inches of rain
Chris - Cindy: formed far to the north early in the season, and while Chris was a hurricane, Cindy reached 70 mph winds
Debby - Nate: another difficult one, but both strengthened despite unfavorable conditions in the Gulf of Mexico only to weaken before landfall
Ernesto - Harvey: both struck the Yucatan Peninsula (Harvey in Belize) and restrengthened in the Bay of Campeche before hitting Mexico
Florence - Don: quick-moving, moderate tropical storms that quickly weakened
Gordon - Katia: strong hurricane, had extended easterly track and affected Europe
Helene - Emily: both formed near the eastern Caribbean, degenerated into a tropical wave, and later reformed as a tropical storm
Isaac - Lee: second-costliest storm of the season, both struck Louisiana, and dropped heavy rainfall
Joyce - Franklin: weakest (Joyce), or tied for weakest (Franklin) storm of the season, formed in a similar location to several other storms in their respective seasons, but failed to intensify
Kirk - Rina: difficult one, but both quickly intensified to near or at major hurricane status, and then weakened almost as quickly
Leslie - Maria: long-lived TS that eventually became hurricane, similar path to hit Newfoundland
Michael - Ophelia: strengthened significantly despite predictions to the contrary, became strongest storm of the season unexpectedly
Nadine - Philippe: long-lived storm over the eastern Atlantic
Oscar - Unnamed: weak and short-lived
Patty - Jose: arguing on here whether it should have been classified, short-lived, weak
Rafael - Bret: difficult, one of the last ones I picked, no real reason, aside from passing near Bermuda
Sandy - Irene: strong hurricane in Caribbean, then were very damaging in the northeast United States
Tony - Gert: strong tropical storm that remained at sea

Not perfect, but it was fun to do!


Those are very good comparisons.
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Re: What is your evaluation of the North Atlantic 2012 season?

#9 Postby beoumont » Thu Nov 22, 2012 10:58 pm

Darn boring year, especially for one with so many named systems.

One solid lesson: Pay little attention to all these soothsayers who "predict" or even declare before the season begins an area of the Atlantic Basin most, or all, of the storms will form. Most of these "forecasts" this year emphasized that there would not be any, or many, Cape Verde tracks: and the exact opposite occurred.

At least the CSU folks know better than to be so specific.
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Re: What is your evaluation of the North Atlantic 2012 season?

#10 Postby jinftl » Fri Nov 23, 2012 2:40 am

Personal evaluations aside (if you got hit, it was a rough season, and vice versa if you didn’t), from the ‘events’ that this seasons storms unfolded, I believe there are certain days that really perked up the antennae on both pro mets and those who are just fascinated with all things ‘storm’.

In chronological order, this is my unofficial, personal view as to which days made the 2012 Season memorable (there are no doubt others so add away!):


5/19/12 & 5/25/12
• In the span of less than a week before the season officially began, the coast of South Carolina is placed under advisories for 2 tropical storms (tropical storm watch from Savannah River to South Santee River for TS Alberto on 5/19 and a tropical storm warning for TS Beryl from South Santee River, SC to the N/C FL East coast on 5/25).


6/21/12
• Hurricane Chris forms 650 miles southeast of Newfoundland at 41 North latitude! That’s pretty far north given that summer had just begun. Mid-latitude systems would become a pattern this season.



6/24/12
• In less than 12 hours, the forecast track for Debby went from a forecast hurricane moving towards the Western Gulf with a possible date with Texas to the tracking doing almost a 180 and instead moving into Florida with unexpected tropical storm winds that brought advisories to the FL west coast even.

Sunday morning forecast track followed by track later that afternoon...
Image

Image




8/3/12
• After a quite July, things seem to be getting going in a hurry when the NHC puts out this forecast graphic for Ernesto’s potential track. That is a forecast track that will get folks on the Gulf Coast to take notice. As it turned out, Ernesto stayed south and was not a U.S. landfalling storm.
Image


8/22/12
• What the Ernesto graphic did for the Central and Western Gulf, the Isaac graphic on this day got South Florida’s attention as we got ready to commemorate Andrew’s 20th anniversary a few days later.
Image


8/26/12
• Now it was New Orleans’ turn, along with the Northern Gulf, to have the scary forecast graphic. As the 7 year anniversary of Katrina approached, this forecast graphic was unsettling to say the least. This is not a track to be taken lightly. The forecast track then went on to be realized. Areas inside the levee protection didn’t flood, nor were evacuations for those same areas ordered.
Image



8/27/12
• Several hundred miles to the east of Isaac at this point, Palm Beach County in south florida gets stuck in a persistent rainband and the worst flooding in over 50 years took place county wide. Most areas saw 8-12”, some areas 16” or more in a 30 hour period.
Image


9/11/12 &10/4/12
• Nadine’s life span – the 21.25 days as a named storm was good enough to tie Fifi as the 2nd longest lasting tropical storm on receord.


10/25/12
• Just when we had been thinking for a few weeks the season was done, Sandy forms and rapidly reaches 110 mph before hitting Cuba (quite possibly to be reclassified as a Cat 3 post-season before hitting Cuba). 200,000 left homeless in Haiti and over $2 billion in damage is done in Cuba, including 150,000+ homes destroyed.


10/29/12
• No need to elaborate – record surge in NYC, parts of NJ coast washed away, tropical storm conditions extend to Bermuda, wind gusts causing Lake flooding in the Great Lakes and 3’of snow falls in West Virginia. Now that is a day!
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#11 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 25, 2012 5:33 pm

About Debby, from the outset, there was little confidence in the forecast. A lot of us were thinking Florida.

I still feel that there is a December surprise in store...
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#12 Postby Hurricane Jed » Fri Dec 07, 2012 8:28 pm

This season kinda reminds me of 1990. Similar numbers of hurricanes and a major apiece. Except the U.S. was punched in the face by this one unlike 1990.
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