12z GFS trending towards the ECMWF .. run poses an EC threat

[Stormsfury]

Ok, ok, I know ... it's the GFS ... however, the overall idea the GFS is seeing is fairly correct, though I wouldn't worry abou the individual details past 7 days ... however, the 12z GFS has definitely trended towards the EURO's idea last night ... and the future Juan is IMO, being handled quite correctly ... With Juan basically on the heels of Isabel you see there just might be some interaction as Juan is redirected northward and Isabel is directed more westward (10% Fujiwhara, 90% new ridge building in left in the wake of exiting Ex-Henri) ...

The EURO run from September 6th depicted this ... note the general idea of the EURO and the 12z GFS are almost in line in regards to Isabel ...
http://stormsfury1.com/Temp/EUROMSLPLoop.gif

The EURO run for the 500mb Geopotential Heights ---
http://stormsfury1.com/Temp/EURO500mbLoop.gif

This loop depicts the animated 12z GFS run and make sure to slow down the loop some by clicking on the slow a few times on the Loop Speed button. This is the North Atlantic View - it's a 30 frame loop that might take a few minutes on a dial-up ... compare the 12z GFS to the EURO posted above ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... 90703.html

This is the North American Loop of the 12z GFS run ... now compare the
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/TempLoo ... 90703.html

Anywhere along the East Coast needs to continue to monitor the progress of Isabel in the coming days ... and Puerto Rico needs to carefully monitor Isabel very closely.

SF

[southerngale]

So, there's not much chance of Isabel getting into the GOM?

[cycloneye]

The only question pending that I have living in Puerto Rico is how far it will pass to the north of PR and the northern islands.

[Stormsfury]

The only question pending that I have living in Puerto Rico is how far it will pass to the north of PR and the northern islands.

Luis, I just edited the original message ...

[cycloneye]

Kelly Isabel will not be a GOM system.

[cycloneye]

Oh ok SF well let's wait as it nears this longitud and see what kind of impact if any the northern islands will have as the ridge builds to the north.

[wxman57]

Yeah, very interesting 12Z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

But I remind you that about this time as Fabian developed, the GFS moved it to Florida, stalled it, then moved it north to NC. Notice something else about he 12Z? It takes Isabel RIGHT OVER Bermuda as a major hurricane! Beyond that time, the GFS shows a ridge building ahead of Isabel, pushing the storm to Long Island where it stalls for days.

Intersting, yes. Accurate? We'll see...

[wxman57]

For some reason, ever since the server moved to Houston (where I am), I can't connect to it very well. I kept waiting and waiting and waiting for my post to submit. Then I hit "Stop" and hit "Submit" again. Looks like it posted twice so I edited this one. It's been replied to so I can't delete it.

[Stormsfury]

Yeah, very interesting 12Z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

But I remind you that about this time as Fabian developed, the GFS moved it to Florida, stalled it, then moved it north to NC. Notice something else about he 12Z? It takes Isabel RIGHT OVER Bermuda as a major hurricane! Beyond that time, the GFS shows a ridge building ahead of Isabel, pushing the storm to Long Island where it stalls for days.

Intersting, yes. Accurate? We'll see...

I sure did notice that, wxman57, but decided not to mention it ... that's why I stated ignore the details after Day 7, but pay attention to the overall pattern and idea the 12z GFS is on ... but since you pointed that out... that ridge that builds in, IMO, makes Isabel more than just a passing interest to anyone along the EC.

The EURO's Day 10 (3 day average) places Isabel somewhere around the Bahamas in that timeframe ...

SF

[wxman57]

Yeah, the GFS takes it to the extreme eastern Bahamas, too, then straight north to Bermuda then WNW-NW to Long Island where it parks for days.

[ameriwx2003]

Yes. for me it isn't so much that the GFS is showing it off the East Coast its more of it is coming around to EURO idea of a west trend, lets see if a west trend continues over several runs or not:):) or if the models flip flop back and forth. I am sure some interesting discussions are ahead:):)

[Rainband]

Kelly Isabel will not be a GOM system.

Do you have a crystal ball luis with the models shifting south now ..anything is possible.. :o It's days away from any land..so we will have to wait and see

[Lindaloo]

I thought the models shifted it more to the SW? If this trend continues, how could it be an EC storm?

[bkhusky2]

That is very interesting, let's hope the GFS isn't correct, Bermuda does not need another major hurricane.

[wxman57]

Linda,

Previously, the models had been turning Isabel north well before the east U.S. coast. Hints of a more W-WSw track between days 3-5 mean that any northward turn would come later - possibly the Bahamas. This increases the threat to the east U.S. coast.

[cycloneye]

And no GOM system as I said before so gomers dont worrie about Isabel as it well may be an EC threat.

[ameriwx2003]

Luis.. I agree with you but one never knows this far out. I remember that Hurricane Georges wasn't supposed to be a GOMER storm either according to the models in the 7 days out + range as a friend of mine just reminded me in a e-mail:):)..( he bet me that Georges would make it into the Gulf several days out and I said no@#$#@ER@# way:):):) ).

[Lindaloo]

Thanks for the information wxman and Ceye.