possible development and probrably last for this month before quietness settles in...
then it's on to november...
2012 WPAC season
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euro6208
Re: 2012 WPAC season
possible development and probrably last for this month before quietness settles in...
then it's on to november...
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euro6208
Re: 2012 WPAC season
Western Pacific up to 257.132
Yearly Ace 302
Year to Date 230
this year is ahead of climatology...
not surprising
Yearly Ace 302
Year to Date 230
this year is ahead of climatology...
not surprising
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Typhoon Hunter
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euro6208
Re: 2012 WPAC season
23/15/9 with an ACE of 267.09 is currently where we stand with 500 deaths...truly devastating...
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euro6208
Re: 2012 WPAC season
this very active and destructive season has come to a complete stop...EURO doesn't develop anything in the near future.. the MJO won't be returning to this area of the world anytime soon...plenty of time left before we can breath a sigh of relief before our season ends in January 1, 2013 at 12:00 am...
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2012 WPAC season
^actually GFS has been consistent in showing another TC formation in the Philippine Sea early next week...their current track for the phantom storm is very similar to Son Tinh's...
I wouldn't want to question Euro though...we are currently in the dry phase of MJO so maybe that's why it shows no sign of cyclone genesis....BUT who knows, Son Tinh came without the MJO in the WPAC/SCS.
I wouldn't want to question Euro though...we are currently in the dry phase of MJO so maybe that's why it shows no sign of cyclone genesis....BUT who knows, Son Tinh came without the MJO in the WPAC/SCS.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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euro6208
Re: 2012 WPAC season
interesting that every month developed something except december...
Normal Average Season with 24 named storm, 16 typhoons, 10 major typhoons...including 2 TD = 26 tropical cyclones...
out of 10 major typhoons, three intensified to category 3, four into category 4 and three into category 5!
season ACE: 303.983
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2012 WPAC season
This is a neutral year and we already obtained an average ACE, even higher than 2009 when we last had a moderate El Nino.
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euro6208
Re: 2012 WPAC season
An interesting area has developed...it's south of pohnpei with a nice vorticity...wind shear continues to be very favorable even for december...could we have another december storm? we'll see
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2012 WPAC season
oh mother
GFS been showing another one this year for some runs now.
this is the latest GFS run.
all of us in here are hoping that Bopha would be our last this year. and the setting is so no good for any part of the country, given that if this happens, it will fall within around Christmas. i hope we could jinx this now hah...there is still cold dry air all over the area.
GFS been showing another one this year for some runs now.
this is the latest GFS run.
all of us in here are hoping that Bopha would be our last this year. and the setting is so no good for any part of the country, given that if this happens, it will fall within around Christmas. i hope we could jinx this now hah...there is still cold dry air all over the area.
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euro6208
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2012 WPAC season
^what the hell does that mean? i'm thinking of a very huge tropical wave right there. that is some huge amount, i am more used to cold, calm and dry Western Pacific in late December. Maybe we are now in a wet phase of the MJO?
GFS run still shows a tropical cyclone tracking towards PI, and 00z shows it still heading towards Visayas then southern Luzon.
i'm thinking of a very huge tropical wave right there. that is some huge amount, i am more used to cold, calm and dry Western Pacific in late December. Maybe we are now in a wet phase of the MJO?GFS run still shows a tropical cyclone tracking towards PI, and 00z shows it still heading towards Visayas then southern Luzon.
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euro6208
Re: 2012 WPAC season
MJO expected to arrive by the end of this month...
GFS and NOGAPS showing a tropical cyclone...i'll wait for EURO to show it then i'll believe it...
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2012 WPAC season
usually Euro is the first model to hint significant TC development before GFS or anyone else and they get it right even at long range. This year though it's not anymore the case. But yeah it's good to see agreement among the models first to make this scenario more believable. Besides you don't have to rely on one model alone, for example the Euro.
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dexterlabio
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euro still shows large swaths of tropical waves across SE Asia. ti can't say if it sees what the GFS and NOGAPS see.
but i must say i never seen Euro showing this kind of system.
but i must say i never seen Euro showing this kind of system.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2012 WPAC season
GFS won again with Wukong hitting PI on Christmas day. but the streak of possible system continues with GFS hinting another system east of Visayas after New Year.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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euro6208
Re: 2012 WPAC season
dexterlabio wrote:GFS won again with Wukong hitting PI on Christmas day. but the streak of possible system continues with GFS hinting another system east of Visayas after New Year.
which could very well happen due to a moderate/strong mjo that is forecast to move through our area...
this is exciting to have a late ending to this season and next year should start off quickly
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